DHL Global Connectedness Report shows deglobalization is NOT the current reality

Our analysis addresses three core questions at the heart of today’s globalization debate:

1. Are global flows still growing?
2. Is geopolitical rivalry fracturing the world economy?
3. Are international flows becoming more regional?

What we have found is that the resilience of international flows stands in stark contrast to widespread narratives that globalization is in retreat. Much of the deglobalization discourse is driven not by actual cross-border flows but by shifts in politics and public opinion, policy changes, corporate adjustment plans, and predictions about the future. These signals matter. They may indicate where globalization is heading, but they do not tell us whether the world is becoming less connected today.

There are several reasons why global flows may continue to demonstrate resilience:

1. Globalization gains still matter: Most leaders seek to preserve these gains while mitigating risks and vulnerabilities.
2. Adaptability drives resilience: Companies have boosted their capacity to adjust rapidly to new cross-border frictions.
3. De-risking does not equal deglobalization: Most trade occurs between friendly countries. Shifts in production to alternative locations often boost trade and international investment.
4. Technology could still boost global flows: Technology has historically expanded globalization by reducing the costs and challenges of distance. New technologies such as AI could again boost growth in global flows.
5. Multipolar growth expands opportunities: While geopolitical rivalry creates risks, a broader distribution of economic activity also multiplies opportunities for international exchange.

The risks to globalization are real. But so is the resilience of international flows. So far, companies and countries are managing the challenges and opportunities of a complex and highly interconnected world rather than retreating behind national borders.

1. Global connectedness remains stable.
   The DHL Global Connectedness Index does not indicate a shift from international to domestic activity across trade, capital, information, and people flows.
2. Goods trade grew faster in 2025.
   Excluding the rebound after trade plummeted during the Covid-19 pandemic, global trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017.
3. Trade growth is forecast to continue.
   From 2026 to 2029, trade should grow at the same average pace as during the past decade.
4. U.S.-China ties continue to diminish.
   Since 2016, the share of U.S. trade, capital, information, and people flows with China has dropped 42%, while China’s share with the U.S. is down 37%.
5. The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China has fallen
   From its peak of 22% in 2017, U.S. imports from China fell to 13% in 2025, then plummeted further to 9% in the first three quarters of 2025.
6. The world remains far from a split into disconnected geopolitical blocs.
   Only 4-6% of global goods trade, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A have shifted away from geopolitical rivals over the past decade.
7. Most international business already occurs among friendly countries
   This limits the threat that de-risking strategies pose to globalization.
8. Goods trade and greenfield FDI crossed their longest average distances on record in 2025
   The shares of these flows occurring within major geographic regions fell to new lows.
9. Singapore is the world’s most globally connected country
   Singapore has the largest international flows relative to domestic activity, and the UK has the most global distribution of flows around the world.
10. Prominent narratives about deglobalization are misguided
    The gap between globalization data and headlines is largely due to the fact that much of the deglobalization discourse is driven more by politics and public policy than by actual shifts in cross-border flows.

Driven by data, delivered by DHL

To make sound decisions, business leaders need solid information. Each edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Report provides a grounded perspective on the state of globalization to help them do just that.

Globalization is at the forefront of many trade and policy discussions worldwide, but it remains difficult to quantify. Making it tangible and measuring its development calls for scrutinizing the data and separating facts from fiction.

As a leading logistics company, DHL is uniquely positioned to provide orientation and contribute to the globalization debate. To provide a solid research foundation, DHL partnered with New York University’s Stern School of Business to form the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, where a team of scholars conducts the research and analysis. Each edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Report builds on the previous report and the scholars’ decades of globalization research.

With debates over the merits of international openness ongoing, the report is a go-to resource for business leaders and policymakers seeking more informed discussions. Due to its unique focus, the DHL Global Connectedness Report is regularly featured in international media outlets and national publications worldwide. It is also increasingly cited in scholarly journals, consultant reports, and general interest books.