Ocean Freight Market Update
December 2025
What’s shaping Ocean Freight in 2025? Explore how various global dynamics are impacting the industry.
Global Ocean Freight Market Overview
Demand
- 5% YTD demand growth led by Asia-Europe and secondary trades; US-China slowed by tariffs, but global demand strong into Chinese New Year.
Capacity
- 7% YoY fleet growth to meet demand, but effective supply reduced by port congestion and Suez detours; orderbooks full as carriers seek market share..
Rates/News
- With demand spike ahead of Chinese New Year, carriers push for rate increases; success only on strong lanes like Asia-Europe. SCFI up 26% from Q3 lows but still below last year.
- EU ETS will cover 100% of emissions in 2026; charges expected to rise by 35–50%, increasing pressure for low-carbon shipping solutions.
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Latest Trade Lane Updates
Far East Westbound
- Demand and bookings remain strong with rising rates until Chinese New Year; November volumes up 36% vs October, vessel utilization at 95%, risk of rolling cargo.
- Carriers announce December rate increases; space and equipment mostly available, but blank sailings persist; EU ETS waiver offered with GoGreen Plus option.
Transpacific Eastbound
- Market remains soft due to low season and US-China trade resolution; demand weak for December while capacity stays high, keeping pressure on rates.
- Rates dropped further in November (USWC $1,450, USEC $2,150); carriers plan GRIs in December, but increases unlikely to hold without more blank sailings.
Asia to Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT)
- Middle East rates at yearly high post-Golden Week; short-term market strong with high utilization, while long-term rates remain stable.
- East Med carriers implemented Phase 2 GRI in mid-Nov; another increase planned early Dec. Vessel utilization 75–85%, equipment imbalances persist.
Indian Subcontinent to Europe/Mediterranean
- Major carriers announce rate increases effective Dec 1; volumes remain stable with no space constraints.
- Blankings announced by CMA end of DEC.
Indian Subcontinent to United States
- Volumes remain low due to tariffs; demand is weak, and overcapacity persists as carriers schedule blank sailings to balance supply.
- PSS/GRI increases postponed from December to January; outlook uncertain until tariff alignment triggers potential demand recovery.
Asia to Latin America
- Demand dropping as vessels arrive for Christmas/New Year; carriers implement Dec 1 GRI after Nov rate drop of $800, though success expected to be limited.
- Carrier utilization at 80% with downward trend; 22 void sailings to WCSA/MX and 3 to ECSA; ECRS set to zero for Pacific and ECSA in December.
Trans-Atlantic
- Demand remains soft as European retail and manufacturing stagnate. Spot rates are flat, and carriers rely on blank sailings to manage oversupply.
- GRIs failed in November; holiday blank sailings planned. ETS surcharges rise in Jan 2026, while Montreal services face draft limits reducing capacity.
Detailed Ocean Freight Market Update
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