Air Freight Market Update
December 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage rose 4% YoY YTD through Nov 2025, with November growth slightly higher than October
- Strong gains were seen in ex-Asia Pacific–Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, Europe–AP routes and ex-MEA
- The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects global air cargo volumes to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching around 71.6 million tonnes
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 2% YoY in Dec 2025, reversing the previous declining trend
- While passenger belly-hold capacity provided some relief against the ongoing steep decline in freighter availability, it was insufficient to fully support overall capacity growth
- IATA’s outlook suggests that cargo load factors (percentage of capacity filled) are expected to remain broadly stable rather than drop sharply, meaning airlines may not be adding capacity faster than demand
Regulation/ News
- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) goes into force in 2026, imposing tariffs on high‑carbon imports (steel, cement, aluminum, hydrogen, fertilizers) to level the playing field with EU climate standards and combat carbon leakage — significantly affecting exporters to the EU
- Apollo explores sale of Atlas Air Worldwide, reports surfaced that private equity firm Apollo is considering selling Atlas Air, a major global freighter operator
- EU Member States decided to introduce a flat customs duty of EUR 3 per shipment from July 2026 on packages valued at less than EUR 150 (so-called "low-value consignments") that are supplied directly to consumers in the EU via electronic commerce from third countries and have so far been exempt from customs duties
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined to ~49.2 in Dec-25, (8-month low), confirming contraction in industrial output and softening export orders. This is expected to weigh on Europe’s outbound air cargo demand into early 2026.
- Trade flows are already reflecting the slowdown, with EU–US air cargo demand down ~8% MoM in Nov-25, pointing to weaker transatlantic volumes and slower end-market absorption.
- Upcoming EU Commission measures to remove low-value import duty exemptions from 2026 may dampen e-commerce inflows. While negative for volumes, this could partially offset broader demand weakness by easing capacity pressure on AP–EU lanes and improving space availability for B2B cargo.
Asia
- Air cargo demand continue to grow with Asia leading the growth. As per WACD, Asia grew 8% YOY in last 2 weeks of Nov.
- Spot rates from Asia to the US/EU continue to rise mid to high single digit in Nov. Overall AP average spot rate is trending upwards but is still 3% below last Nov level.
- Demand growth forecast at 2.6% in 2026 and outlook remains positive with on going expansion in Q4. Capacity is growing steadily with passenger belly network growth.
Middle East and Africa
- MEA air trade in 2025 is primarily driven by e-commerce and high-value, time-sensitive goods (pharma, perishables, electronics), with Africa supplying perishables and pharma growth, and Middle East hubs enabling fast transshipment between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Oman was signed to deepen bilateral trade and investment ties — expanding market access and services cooperation.
- Airports Council International (ACI) forecasts that Asia‑Pacific and the Middle East will continue to lead global air cargo growth through 2028 — driven by e‑commerce expansion, trade diversification, and investment in cargo infrastructure.
Americas
- In the final stretch of a volatile year, import tonnage has softened from recent peaks, indicating that Asia-Pacific to US air imports have largely moved past the seasonal high. In contrast, US export tonnage remains elevated over the same period and has yet to reflect the typical holiday-related slowdown that is likely to emerge in the coming weeks.
- Canada continues to face weak new export activity, with cautious inventory purchasing signaling subdued underlying industrial air cargo demand. This softness persists despite broader economic support from earlier export-led GDP growth and easing input cost inflation.
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