Global Trade

Conquering the peak season – 4 critical factors for success

The holiday-season surge presents big challenges for retailers, from managing inventory to navigating unexpected disruptions. But it also offers big opportunities! Learn about them here and discover four key factors that can make all the difference.

Seasonal surges, both expected and unexpected

For many people around the world, the end of the year is a busy time. Gifts, gatherings, going on vacation – the “most wonderful time of the year” can be stressful.

It’s a challenging time for retailers, too – which is why the fourth quarter of the year is referred to as the peak season. The biggest hurdles of this time of year are mostly related to supply chains. The short-term surge in demand often leads to higher labor, transport, and warehouse capacity costs, as well as busier passenger and cargo traffic. Inclement weather can cause sudden congestion and delays, and unexpected spikes in consumer demand lead to shortages of certain products.

Matching inventory in stores and warehouses to customer demand is probably the most important task facing any supply chain manager in the retail industry.

87%

Recent trade policy changes are impacting their holiday sourcing and shipping strategies

84%

Will participate in Black Friday 2025

78%

Expect peak season business to perform better than last year

30%

Report sourcing from non-traditional regions

^{Sources: DHL Express USA survey and DHL eCommerce Trends Report}

Peak season challenges

Peak season always brings a mix of predictable surges and unpredictable shocks. As retailers prepare for strong e-commerce demand, they’re also navigating a more complex landscape shaped by shifting consumer behavior, climate volatility, economic uncertainty, and tightening labor markets. That’s why many retailers and their supply chain partners have spent the entire year preparing for both the expected and the unexpected.

Extreme weather events continue to disrupt networks worldwide – from heat waves and wildfires in some regions to heavy storms and flooding in others. These disruptions can create sudden bottlenecks for air, ocean, and overland transport. At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions are reshaping global trade flows, prompting companies to diversify their supplier base, shorten lead times, and build resilience into their supply chains.

This year’s peak season will require supply chains that are flexible and responsive to shifts in demand and day-to-day disruptions. Retailers will also need to be strategic in applying the right promotions and discounts to move the inventory they have in stock – and the inventory they can replenish most reliably.

In short: today’s peak season isn’t just about high volumes – it’s about managing high volumes in a more unpredictable world. Businesses that plan well, stay flexible, and tap into the right logistics expertise will be best positioned to turn these challenges into opportunities.

In peak seasons, the dynamics of volumes can vary. The trend has been that Black Friday sales started early, with promotions appearing on websites weeks before. Consumers have embraced this tradition, but were more cost-conscious in recent years. The question is, when will they make their purchases?

Kraig Foreman, President, eCommerce, DHL Supply Chain North America

The peak season opportunity

The good news for retailers is that all of this represents an opportunity – especially in a competitive market. The companies best positioned to profit from peak season and emerge on top – with increased customer loyalty – will be those that can:

Maximize stock availability
Time promotions to attract higher demand when they have sufficient capacity to deliver
Manage costs and disruption during periods when capacity becomes tight

The supply chain can be a genuine differentiator in all of these areas.

4 factors for peak season success

In our experience, peak performance in supply chains is typically about excelling across these four core areas:

1. Planning
It is important to minimize uncertainty to the extent possible – and to optimize inventory levels – by anticipating customer behavior, understanding transport capacity and rate developments, and even forecasting weather and traffic developments. You can create an advantage when planning for peak by applying new technology – particularly data analysis and machine learning – and increasing open information-sharing between retailers and supply chain partners.

2. Flexibility
Retailers need their supply chain to be as flexible as possible – adaptive and responsive to the sudden changes in customer behavior and operating environment that are typical for the end-of-year period. Effective measures can range from using technology such as mobile robots that can be moved around your network in response to demand surges to using transportation partners who can switch your cargo between different transport modes and routes at short notice. Having real-time visibility on transport and inventory flows is also essential in managing and reacting to changes.

3. Capacity
Securing sufficient transportation, warehousing, and inventory handling capacity is critical to managing peak season surges and capitalizing on consumer demand. This requires proactive measures, such as putting sufficient human resources in place. Third-party logistics providers can play a decisive role in providing additional transportation and warehousing infrastructure and access to qualified people. They often have strong relationships with carriers and get priority access to additional capacity, even at short notice. They can also free up more capacity by consolidating shipments within their networks.

4. Efficiency
Adding capacity and flexibility can come at a premium, which can quickly offset any gains from peak sales. Maximizing efficiency is an essential way of ensuring that costs remain under control even during surges in volume. Increasing productivity through automated warehouse technology and optimizing transportation networks to consolidate deliveries and match more expensive modes of transport to higher value (or higher margin) products are examples of how retailers can preserve profitability while not compromising on service.

Conquering the peak with confidence

Peak season will always be demanding, but the right preparation and the right logistics partner can turn it into a moment of strength. When retailers plan ahead, stay flexible, rely on proven expertise, and maximize efficiency, they can navigate peak season with confidence – turning challenges into opportunities that keep their sales flowing and deliver the experience their customers expect.

Retailers must focus on transparency, authenticity, and seamless delivery options to win loyalty.

Pablo Ciano, CEO at DHL eCommerce

Updated: November 2025

2025 E-Commerce Trends

Black Friday Buying Behavior

Shoppers are ready to spend, but the e-tailers must understand what motivates them, what they’re buying, and whether they trust the offers. Find out in our 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report.

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