Global Trade

Air freight in 2027: Why global growth hides tight capacity on individual lanes

AI-driven demand, uneven capacity and high fuel costs are reshaping conditions for individual corridors. Air freight expert Henk Venema explains what shippers should watch – and how they can plan lane-by-lane in 2027.

Air freight volumes grew 5% year-on-year through August 2026. But that cheerful global average hides sharply different conditions from one trade route to another.

In August, for example, cargo volumes from Asia to North America were up 15% year-on-year and Asia to Latin America 23%, while Asia to Europe fell 8%.

Henk Venema, Executive Vice President Global Air Freight at DHL Global Forwarding, says shippers should look beyond headline growth and focus on the routes that matter to their own supply chains. AI-driven demand, uneven capacity, fuel costs and geopolitical disruption are creating very different pressures from one route to another. For shippers, resilience increasingly means understanding where those pressure points are and having alternatives ready before disruption hits.

My main message is simple: Do not use the global average as a proxy for the corridor that matters to your supply chain. The pressure points sit on specific lanes, and those are likely to remain uneven into 2027

Henk Venema Executive Vice President Global Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding

Read on for Henk Venema’s four key takes on the future of global air freight

1. AI demand is putting pressure on key Asian export routes

The strongest new demand driver is the build-out of AI infrastructure. AI hyperscalers, including major technology companies and specialist data center operators, are building out infrastructure in North America, while suppliers are moving high-value components by air. Some of this demand appears in the statistics as traditional industrial cargo because established manufacturers increasingly supply the same infrastructure chain.

The cargo mix shows the shift. Of approximately 17 million metric tons moved by air year to date, high-tech cargo accounted for 3 million metric tons and grew 22%. Chinese e-commerce represented 2.9 million metric tons and remained flat, with other general cargo accounting for the remaining 11.2 million metric tons.

The pressure is particularly concentrated on routes from Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan to the US. I expect that demand to continue into 2027, making these Asian export routes a key capacity issue for shippers.

My key takeaway:

Treat AI infrastructure as a supply-chain demand driver, not just a technology trend. Its impact is already visible in high-tech volumes and competition for capacity on specific Asian export routes.

2. Additional capacity won’t arrive where it’s needed fast enough

Global air-freight capacity comes from two main sources: cargo carried in passenger aircraft and dedicated freighters. But simply adding more passenger flights doesn’t necessarily create capacity on the routes where demand is highest. Some shipments also require freighters because of their size, weight or the type of goods being transported.

Total air freight capacity grew by only 1% year to date through September 2026. Capacity from Asia to North America grew by 9%, but the flow of goods is increasingly one-sided. Air cargo from Asia Pacific to the US rose from 1.5 million metric tons in 2023 to 2.3 million metric tons in 2026, while volumes travelling in the opposite direction fell from 0.8 million to 0.7 million metric tons.

That imbalance has a cost. A freighter carrying a full load from Asia to North America may have much less cargo for the return journey, meaning the outbound flight has to recover more of the round-trip cost.

Around 20 freighters are expected for delivery on the world market in 2027, with most going to express delivery companies rather than traditional cargo airlines. Older aircraft will also continue to leave the fleet. Therefore, dedicated freighter capacity is likely to remain in high demand and limited supply for the next several years.

I also expect more partnerships between Middle Eastern and Asian airlines seeking ways to participate in the transpacific market within existing traffic-right constraints.

My key takeaway:

More aircraft globally doesn’t necessarily mean more capacity where it is needed most. What matters is having the right aircraft on the right routes, permission to operate them and sufficient cargo moving in both directions.

3. Fuel and disruption make resilience a route-by-route challenge

Another major pressure on air freight rates is jet fuel. The US Energy Information Administration reported that the September 2026 monthly average was 110% above the previous year, while in early October jet fuel reached about US$185 per barrel. Combined with tight supply and demand, this has led carriers to adjust fuel surcharges frequently.

The impact is greatest on routes where freighters return lightly loaded. Between week 1 and week 40 of 2026, rates rose 34% from Asia to Latin America, 30% from Asia to North America and 18% from China to Europe. Europe to North America rose by 12%, a route where passenger aircraft carry much of the cargo and costs can be spread across traffic moving in both directions.

Disruption in the Middle East is another reminder that resilience cannot be improvised during a crisis. Dubai has returned to near-normal transit and capacity, but India, Thailand and Vietnam remain substantially dependent on Middle Eastern connections. The question isn’t whether shippers should avoid these routes, but whether workable alternatives are ready when disruption occurs.

Logistics providers can keep goods moving by rerouting shipments through other hubs, combining transport modes and securing alternative capacity in advance. But those alternatives need to be validated beforehand, meaning the routes, carriers and handling processes have been checked and approved for the shipment involved.

This is especially important for life sciences and healthcare shipments, where temperature control and handling requirements can limit the available options. During a disruption, many companies may seek approval for alternative routes at the same time, making audits and on-site surveys a bottleneck.

My key takeaway:

Resilience doesn’t mean avoiding an entire region. It means understanding your dependencies and having workable, validated alternatives ready before they are needed.

4. What does all this mean for shippers?

The answer isn’t to default to air freight for every urgent shipment or assume ocean is always the economical alternative. Shippers should compare air, ocean and sea-air against the actual requirements of each shipment, including lead time, reliability, product sensitivity and the cost of disruption.

Five steps can help:

Plan route by route. Use global forecasts for context but make capacity and budget decisions around the routes your business actually depends on.
Prepare alternatives early. For regulated or controlled cargo, validate alternative routes and handling processes before disruption occurs.
Choose the right mode for the shipment. Air, ocean and sea-air can each be the right choice depending on urgency and reliability.
Secure capacity where exposure is highest. Established carrier relationships and access to dedicated capacity matter most when markets tighten.
Budget for volatility. Allow for changing fuel costs and surcharges instead of assuming current levels will be short-lived.

My advice:

Spot change early, understand what it means for the routes your supply chain depends on, and have an alternative ready before the market forces you to react.

About the expert

Henk Venema is Executive Vice President Global Air Freight at DHL Global Forwarding. He has more than 20 years of experience in logistics and air cargo and has spent the past decade with DHL.

LinkedIn profile Explore Henk Venema’s Insights

Frequently asked questions about air freight in 2027

Not necessarily on the routes where demand is strongest. Around 20 freighters are expected for delivery on the world market in 2027, but most will go to express delivery companies rather than traditional cargo airlines, while older aircraft will continue to leave the fleet. Passenger aircraft will add cargo capacity too, but they do not necessarily operate on the routes or carry the types of shipments where additional capacity is most needed.