Ocean Freight Market Update
February 2026
What’s shaping Ocean Freight in 2026? Explore how various global dynamics are impacting the industry.
Global Ocean Freight Market Overview
Demand
- Demand is up 5% YTD through Nov 2025, driven by stronger secondary trade volumes out of Asia, with steady global activity expected through Chinese New Year and a potential shift back to the Suez route likely to strengthen Asia–Europe movements.
Capacity
- Capacity expansion will remain limited, with only 3% fleet growth expected in 2026, well below the ~6% historical average, while effective capacity stays tight due to two-year high port congestion and the continued Suez detour; carriers’ full orderbooks mostly impact the market from 2027 onward.
Rates/News
- • Rates are expected to ease into early summer following the pre–Chinese New Year spike, with futures already signaling 2025H2 price levels.
- • Volatility is likely to persist into 2026 barring new geopolitical shocks, while trade lane variation continues as global demand shifts toward secondary routes.
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Latest Trade Lane Updates
Far East Westbound
- Far East Westbound continues to recover, supported by strong pre‑Chinese New Year bookings and tight space, with vessel utilization remaining above 90%.
- Rates are softening as the pre‑Chinese New Year rush ends, but a quicker rebound is possible driven by China’s solar export push ahead of the April 2026 VAT adjustment.
Transpacific Eastbound
- Utilization on both coasts remains around 88%, with space opening up as demand softens through January–February; spot levels continue easing and Peak Season Surcharge remains suspended.
- Void sailings stay high as carriers manage capacity, pre‑Chinese New Year demand was lower than expected, and contract‑season discussions will intensify after Chinese New Year and Trans‑Pacific Maritime Conference.
Asia to Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT)
- Middle East pricing stays high with tight space and strong short‑term utilization, while long‑term levels remain steady; demand is supported by the back‑to‑back pre‑Chinese New Year and pre‑Ramadan periods.
- In the East Mediterranean, carriers have secured further GRIs during the pre‑Chinese New Year rush, with utilization around 85–90% and fluctuating rates as they target optimal fill levels; capacity remains tight with ongoing equipment imbalances.
Indian Subcontinent to Europe/Mediterranean
- Rates and volumes remain stable through January with a solid outlook, and carriers have announced rate increases for February.
- No space or equipment constraints reported, with operations running smoothly so far.
Indian Subcontinent to United States
- Tariff conditions remain unchanged, limiting volume growth; rates are currently at their lowest levels, and no upward movement is expected unless the tariff situation improves.
- Carriers continue announcing Peak Season Surcharge and General Rate Increase measures for February in anticipation of future tariff alignment, while current demand levels have resulted in excess capacity and additional blank sailings.
Asia to Latin America
- LATAM demand remains weak with full inventories and muted buying activity; attempted GRIs have not held, and rates continue to slide.
- Trade growth is modest at 1.8% for 2026, with soft volumes in BR and MX; utilization is around 80%, and more blank sailings are expected after Chinese New Year.
Trans-Atlantic
- Transatlantic rates remain pressured by overcapacity and softer U.S. import demand, even as ETS‑related costs keep the cost base elevated.
- Winter weather in Northern Europe and low water levels on the St. Lawrence River are causing schedule delays and keeping blank sailings in place through February.
Detailed Ocean Freight Market Update
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