Air Freight Market Update
September 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Global Air Cargo Demand
- With August volume bouncing back at +4% in YoY – stable but slightly lower than the July rebound; strong gains ex-Asia Pacific(AP), Intra-AP, and Europe-AP
- Air cargo in Q4 2025 faces margin and reliability pressures from capacity constraints, rising costs, congestion, and potential demand shocks from tariffs, seasonal disruptions, and a global economic slowdown.
Global Air Cargo Capacity
- Although passenger bellyhold capacity is providing some relief, it is not enough to offset the decline or drive overall growth.
- Asia to Europe, a mixed yet resilient market, this corridor remains one of the largest and most strategic. Capacity has consistently grown in double digits since March, with Europe standing out as the only region to record positive YOY growth across all months in 2025
Regulation/News
- Fleet growth remains constrained despite new deliveries, with Boeing 777-8F delays and slow Airbus A350F ramp-up. The global widebody freighter fleet is projected to grow less than 1% annually through 2030, signaling a persistently tight air cargo capacity environment.
- EU Aviation Security Regulation (EU) 2025/920: effective 1st September 2025, the EU implemented Regulation (EU) 2025/920, introducing stricter security requirements for Regulated Agents and Known Consignors. These entities are now required to provide detailed information for export shipments, including consignor and consignee details, as well as a description of the goods, to strengthen air cargo security.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Europe's EU airlines are retreating from China routes due to high operating costs and longer detours via Russia, while Chinese carriers are gaining market share with faster and more affordable flights.
- EU considers suspending parts of the EU–Israel Association Agreement, which could raise export costs, disrupt air freight flows, and prompt shippers to reroute or scale back shipments in sensitive sectors such as agriculture, technology, and high-value goods.
Asia
- Sector-specific trends: Tech NPI demand is stable but moderate, while major e-commerce players operate dedicated charters to alleviate pressure on commercial capacity. Overall demand may stay elevated but less intense.
- Trade lane dynamics and carrier response: Asia–Europe demand is expected to outperform Asia–U.S., where higher tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption weigh on volumes. Carriers are adjusting capacity and canceling flights strategically to maintain rate stability.
Middle East and Africa
- Sustained demand drivers: Robust demand is supported by specialized cargo, booming e-commerce, and continued investment in regional logistics infrastructure.
- Trade and export dynamics: U.S. tariffs on certain South African goods add pressure on exporters, while seasonal agricultural exports in Africa help sustain overall market demand.
Americas
- Impact of U.S. tariffs on India–U.S. trade: India–U.S. volumes were generally up year-over-year until August, when 25% tariffs were imposed. Volumes have since dropped sharply following the implementation of 50% tariffs at the end of August.
- Implications for peak season: The combination of China-to-alternative AP market shifts and global volatility from U.S. tariffs is creating an unusually unpredictable and atypical peak season for air cargo.
Detailed Air Freight Market Update
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