Air Freight Market Update
February 2026
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2026? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage grew 8% YoY in Jan 26. Asia–Europe and intra-Asia lanes remain the primary growth engines supported by manufacturing concentration, e-commerce exports, and supply chain realignment toward Southeast Asia.
- Growth remains uneven across regions and segments. While technology-driven shipments and select trades continue to perform strongly, volatility persists due to weather disruptions, evolving trade policies, and reactive supply chain behaviours, making demand patterns increasingly unpredictable.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 5% YoY in Feb 26, airlines are further reducing their exposure to the transpacific trade and relocating to other trade corridors.
- Belly capacity continues to return with passenger recovery, lifting overall supply.
- Freighter redeployments, aircraft delivery delays, and network optimization are preventing broad market loosening. While capacity is growing, corridor-specific constraints continue to create localized tightness and reducing flexibility on key trade lanes.
Regulation/ News
- European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued several Proposed Airworthiness Directives (PADs) in February 2026 under its continuing airworthiness programme: PAD 26-032 (23 Feb 2026); PAD 26-030 (12 Feb 2026) and PAD 26-027 (9 Feb 2026). Risk-based proposals addressing identified unsafe conditions. Following stakeholder consultation, these may be adopted as mandatory EASA Airworthiness Directives (ADs).
- European Regions Airline Association (ERA) say many fuel suppliers missed the 14 Feb SAF documentation deadline under ReFuelEU Aviation, leaving airlines without verified SAF certificates required to demonstrate compliance and claim EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) allowances, and calling for timelier, standardised, aligned reporting to avoid compliance risk.
- EAS LATAM Airlines will launch its first-ever nonstop services from São Paulo/Guarulhos (GRU) to Amsterdam (AMS), Brussels (BRU) and Cape Town (CPT) in 2026.
- Lufthansa itself avoided fines in a lengthy EU cargo cartel case after the EU top court upheld €776 M in penalties on other airlines — highlighting regulatory risks in freight pricing.
- Emirates SkyCargo is adding two additional weekly freighters to India and will deploy a dedicated weekly freighter to Dhaka, Bangladesh, from April 2026, expanding capacity on high-demand trade lanes.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Eurozone PMI shifted from contraction in Jan’26 to expansion in the Feb’26 flash reading, with new orders returning to growth, a supportive indicator for outbound air cargo if momentum is sustained.
- Severe winter disruptions, strikes in Germany, airspace restrictions and tighter EU ETS carbon rules are lifting carrier costs and constraining usable capacity, effectively underpinning a higher rate floor.
- DHL is scaling Brussels (BRU) as a pharma gateway with 45,000 sqm of GDP-compliant facilities and a dedicated BRU–CVG B777 freighter, while expansions at LHR, LGW and LTN add capacity to the European air freight market, improve connectivity and enhance supply chain resilience.
Asia
- February Demand Patterns – Driven by pre-CNY pull-forward shipments amid factory shutdowns in China and SE Asia, led by High Tech; growth concentrated in China, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam. Volumes dropped mid-to-late February due to factory closures.
- Short-term capacity tightness from early-Feb demand compression compounded by adverse North Asia weather, causing flight cancellations and delays.
- Spot rates spiked early February with strong demand, then softened post-LNY in line with seasonal trends; March recovery expected from post-LNY ramp-up and quarter-end time-critical cargo surge.
Middle East and Africa
- Air freight space is tightening, with major carriers suspending operations in several Gulf countries and airlines halting flights, significantly reducing available cargo capacity —estimates a notable drop in global freight space.
- Widespread airspace closures across the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Israel, etc.) have caused a major disruption in global flight and air cargo operations. Over 3,400 flights cancelled or diverted — including cargo services — as key hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha are affected.
- Ongoing regional airspace restrictions and safety risks are tightening supply chains and increasing freight rates, complicating logistics for exporters and importers dependent on Gulf hub connectivity.
Americas
- US & Transpacific Market Trends – US air cargo remains stable, though Transpacific volumes are softening except for data center and capital equipment shipments. US–LATAM demand is slowing, while US–EU shows slight improvement. AP–NORAM flows grew +8% YoY, benefiting Canada (notably YVR), despite recent winter weather disruptions.
- LATAM Capacity & Perishables Dynamics – US inbound freighter capacity from LATAM has normalized post–Valentine’s peak. Strong perishables flows from Honduras, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Peru continue to tighten space, with rising temperatures in Mexico also causing passenger flight cargo offloads.
- Network Developments & Capacity Additions – New capacity includes Emirates’ weekly EZE–UIO freighter, Iberojet’s MAD–QRO passenger cargo offering, and Air France adding CDG freighter frequencies (3x weekly from NLU, 2x weekly from GDL).
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