Ocean Freight Market Update
January 2026
What’s shaping Ocean Freight in 2026? Explore how various global dynamics are impacting the industry.
Global Ocean Freight Market Overview
Demand
- Demand is up 5% YTD through Nov 2025, driven by stronger secondary trade volumes out of Asia, with steady global activity expected through Chinese New Year and a potential shift back to the Suez route likely to strengthen Asia–Europe movements.
Capacity
- Capacity expansion will remain limited, with only 3% fleet growth expected in 2026, well below the ~6% historical average, while effective capacity stays tight due to two-year high port congestion and the continued Suez detour; carriers’ full orderbooks mostly impact the market from 2027 onward.
Rates/News
- • Rates are expected to ease into early summer following the pre–Chinese New Year spike, with futures already signaling 2025H2 price levels.
- • Volatility is likely to persist into 2026 barring new geopolitical shocks, while trade lane variation continues as global demand shifts toward secondary routes.
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Latest Trade Lane Updates
Far East Westbound
- Strong demand and tight capacity ahead of Chinese New Year: Vessel utilization at 99% with risk of cargo rolling; space is limited, bookings recommended 4 weeks in advance.
- Rising costs and limited space: EU ETS surcharges up 35–50%; carriers restrict bookings, driving volatility.
Transpacific Eastbound
- Soft market with weak demand: Vessel utilization down (WC 85%, EC 89%); space remains open across gateways.
- Blank sailings on the rise: 31 void sailings projected for January as carriers manage capacity ahead of Lunar New Year.
Asia to Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT)
- Middle East rates at yearly high: Tight space and strong short-term utilization; long-term rates remain stable.
- East Med sees continued rate hikes: GRIs implemented in Dec, more planned for Jan; vessel utilization around 90%, equipment imbalances persist.
Indian Subcontinent to Europe/Mediterranean
- Rate hikes effective Jan 2026: New increases announced; strong Q1 outlook with good volumes.
- No major constraints: Space and equipment remain available despite rising demand.
Indian Subcontinent to United States
- Volumes hit by tariffs: Demand remains weak with major declines; carriers anticipate recovery once tariffs stabilize.
- Capacity control measures: PSS/GRIs announced for Jan; blank sailings scheduled to counter oversupply in US trade.
Asia to Latin America
- Rates remain volatile: GRIs announced to prevent further declines, but success outlook is limited; carriers expect stronger demand in Jan–Feb.
- Capacity adjustments ahead: Utilization around 80%; carriers plan void sailings (7 WCSA/MX, 4 ECSA) to manage supply.
Trans-Atlantic
- Soft demand and rate pressure: Rates expected to stay weak into Q1; EU ETS surcharges rise as carriers cover 100% emissions; Montreal services impacted by draft restrictions.
- Operational volatility despite open space: Blank sailings (~10%) and rotation changes to manage oversupply; strikes and congestion in Antwerp/Rotterdam disrupt schedule reliability.
Detailed Ocean Freight Market Update
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