Ocean Freight Market Update
February 2026
What’s shaping Ocean Freight in 2026? Explore how various global dynamics are impacting the industry.
Global Ocean Freight Market Overview
Demand
- Global ocean demand rose by 4% in 2025, driven by stronger secondary trades out of Asia, with growth expected across most routes except North American imports.
Capacity
- Fleet expansion is forecast to slow to 3% in 2026, well below the ~6% average of the past decade, while effective capacity remains tight due to persistent port congestion and ongoing Suez detours, with full order books unlikely to boost supply until 2027.
- Capacity pressures are set to intensify, as the Strait of Hormuz closure traps 1.4% of the global container fleet, driving tighter vessel space, potential congestion in Asian transshipment hubs, and rising bunker prices.
Rates/News
- Rates are set to rise following recent geopolitical escalation, driven by war‑risk and emergency surcharges, equipment imbalances, and the prolonged Asia–Europe rerouting around Africa, with volatility expected to persist through 2026.
- Geopolitical instability has intensified, delaying any large‑scale return to the Suez Canal by several months, with most carriers still avoiding the route for safety reasons and any eventual reopening expected to trigger months of reshuffling, disruption, and congestion.
Get Logistics Insights by Email
Subscribe to our monthly market updates and get invited to exclusive webinars where our Freight Forwarding Experts answer all your questions on global trade.
Latest Trade Lane Updates
Far East Westbound
- Far East Westbound continues to recover, supported by strong pre‑Chinese New Year bookings and tight space, with vessel utilization remaining above 90%.
- Rates are softening as the pre‑Chinese New Year rush ends, but a quicker rebound is possible driven by China’s solar export push ahead of the April 2026 VAT adjustment.
Transpacific Eastbound
- Utilization on both coasts remains around 88%, with space opening up as demand softens through January–February; spot levels continue easing and Peak Season Surcharge remains suspended.
- Void sailings stay high as carriers manage capacity, pre‑Chinese New Year demand was lower than expected, and contract‑season discussions will intensify after Chinese New Year and Trans‑Pacific Maritime Conference.
Asia to Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT)
- Middle East pricing stays high with tight space and strong short‑term utilization, while long‑term levels remain steady; demand is supported by the back‑to‑back pre‑Chinese New Year and pre‑Ramadan periods.
- In the East Mediterranean, carriers have secured further GRIs during the pre‑Chinese New Year rush, with utilization around 85–90% and fluctuating rates as they target optimal fill levels; capacity remains tight with ongoing equipment imbalances.
Indian Subcontinent to Europe/Mediterranean
- Rates and volumes remain stable through January with a solid outlook, and carriers have announced rate increases for February.
- No space or equipment constraints reported, with operations running smoothly so far.
Indian Subcontinent to United States
- Tariff conditions remain unchanged, limiting volume growth; rates are currently at their lowest levels, and no upward movement is expected unless the tariff situation improves.
- Carriers continue announcing Peak Season Surcharge and General Rate Increase measures for February in anticipation of future tariff alignment, while current demand levels have resulted in excess capacity and additional blank sailings.
Asia to Latin America
- LATAM demand remains weak with full inventories and muted buying activity; attempted GRIs have not held, and rates continue to slide.
- Trade growth is modest at 1.8% for 2026, with soft volumes in BR and MX; utilization is around 80%, and more blank sailings are expected after Chinese New Year.
Trans-Atlantic
- Transatlantic rates remain pressured by overcapacity and softer U.S. import demand, even as ETS‑related costs keep the cost base elevated.
- Winter weather in Northern Europe and low water levels on the St. Lawrence River are causing schedule delays and keeping blank sailings in place through February.
Detailed Ocean Freight Market Update
Discover the latest trends, key market developments, and expert analysis that can impact your logistics strategy.
Want to Read More Freight Forwarding Stories?
Get the latest on Air, Ocean and Rail Freight Forwarding in your inbox every month, along with regular invitations to our webinars.
