Air Freight Market Update
June 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Global Air Cargo Demand
- Strong and stable gains ex-Asia Pacific and Intra-AP lanes contrast with sharp declines from ex-EU and ex-MEA regions
- Global air cargo volume growth for 2025 is now forecast at ~0.6%, down from earlier 5–6% expectations; while e-commerce demand weakens, high-value and time-critical shipments remain resilient, with strongest growth seen in emerging markets, specialized cargo, and tech-driven logistics
Global Air Cargo Capacity
- July saw capacity increases on AP-EU, EU-AP, and MEA-AP lanes, but significant drops on Intra-AP and AP–North America lanes
- Air cargo capacity in Q3–Q4 2025 is expected to grow modestly (~2–3% YoY), driven by belly space recovery, with constraints from aircraft shortages and delivery delays limiting freighter expansion
Regulation/News
- ICAO is updating Annexes 17 (Security) and 18 (Dangerous Goods) to enhance air cargo safety—especially for lithium batteries - by promoting end-to-end supply chain accountability and stronger State oversight; implementation is expected by 2028
- Swiss WorldCargo has joined Lufthansa Cargo’s and United Cargo’s transatlantic alliance to provide cargo customers with denser direct connections to and from Europe over the Atlantic
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Middle East Conflict Disrupts: Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran prompted the closure of Israeli airspace, impacting airfreight operations. Around 1,800 Europe-bound flights were affected, with 650 cancellations.
- Trends in Europe: Modest growth and rate stability in May’25, aided by lower fuel costs. Despite persistent trade and logistics challenges, Asia Pacific to Europe routes remained one of the primary drivers of global capacity expansion
Asia
- eCommerce demand on the Transpacific route remains subdued due to ongoing customs clearance challenges. A quarter-end rush is expected to support demand through June
- Capacity Update: Capacity remains stable on routes to the United States and Europe, while Intra-Asia capacity-especially to India is tighter. Overall, supply is sufficient to meet current demand levels.
Middle East and Africa
- Cargo Volumes Decline: Air cargo to/from the Middle East dropped sharply in Week 24, impacted by Eid Al-Adha holidays and regional conflict. Tonnage from Levant countries fell 21% week-on-week due to widespread flight cancellations.
- United Arab Emirates Leads Regional Recovery: Despite declines across most Gulf countries, the UAE saw a 15% week-on-week increase in cargo volumes, driven by strong demand to Africa (+36%) and the Middle East and South Asia region (+31%), especially to Kenya and West Africa.
Americas
- United States Inbound Volumes Soften: Inbound cargo volumes to the US remain soft amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. While tentative trade deals have been reached with the United Kingdom and China, talks with Japan and the Europe have yet to yield progress.
- United States–China Tariff Agreement: The US and China have reached a tentative tariff agreement, setting rates at 55% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods—well below the previously threatened 140%+ levels but still significantly higher than recent norms
Detailed Air Freight Market Update
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