Air Freight Market Update
July 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Global Air Cargo Demand
- Strong and stable gains ex-Asia Pacific and Intra-AP lanes contrast with sharp declines from ex-EU and ex-MEA regions
- Global air cargo volume growth for 2025 is now forecast at ~0.6%, down from earlier 5–6% expectations; while e-commerce demand weakens, high-value and time-critical shipments remain resilient, with strongest growth seen in emerging markets, specialized cargo, and tech-driven logistics
Global Air Cargo Capacity
- July saw capacity increases on AP-EU, EU-AP, and MEA-AP lanes, but significant drops on Intra-AP and AP–North America lanes
- Air cargo capacity in Q3–Q4 2025 is expected to grow modestly (~2–3% YoY), driven by belly space recovery, with constraints from aircraft shortages and delivery delays limiting freighter expansion
Regulation/News
- ICAO is updating Annexes 17 (Security) and 18 (Dangerous Goods) to enhance air cargo safety—especially for lithium batteries - by promoting end-to-end supply chain accountability and stronger State oversight; implementation is expected by 2028
- Swiss WorldCargo has joined Lufthansa Cargo’s and United Cargo’s transatlantic alliance to provide cargo customers with denser direct connections to and from Europe over the Atlantic
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Stabilized summer belly hold capacity helped moderate Europe-bound rates. Transatlantic rates remained elevated—around 20% higher YoY—while Europe–Asia rates saw a slight decline.
- Weak European Industrial Demand: The Eurozone manufacturing PMI stayed below 50 in June (at ~49.5), indicating contraction. This points to continued softness in air cargo demand for industrial goods like machinery and components.
Asia
- Shifting supply chains to Southeast Asia boosted demand on Intra-Asia routes, reflecting broader regional realignment.
- Asia outbound flight operations to and via the Middle East have resumed; however, continued avoidance of Israeli and Iranian airspace is resulting in longer flight times and reduced payload capacity.
Middle East and Africa
- Emirates SkyCargo, Etihad Cargo, and Qatar Airways Cargo continue to expand pharmaceutical, e‑commerce, and temperature-controlled services. Emirates extended freighter routes (e.g. to Copenhagen), and Etihad doubled services to Africa.
- Q3 2025 is expected to reflect continued normalized demand for the Middle East region, with e‑commerce and pharma sectors stabilizing growth, while Africa may show incremental recovery but still lags in utilization metrics.
Americas
- Mexico: High temperatures and severe rains in Mexico City are causing daily cargo offloads on PAX flights from MEX; freighter payloads at NLU are also reduced, though impact remains limited for now.
- Canada: Tariff-related disruptions are affecting AP–Canada traffic; recent U.S.–Canada tariff moves led some shippers (e.g., from Malaysia) to bypass Canada entirely, creating volatile demand and complicating flight planning.
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