Air Freight Market Update
October 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage rose +4% YoY YTD through Oct 2025, with October growth flat versus September.
- Strong gains were seen in ex-Asia Pacific–Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, and Europe–AP routes.
- Outlook for Q1 2026: expect demand to continue growing over Q1, but at a moderate pace rather than a sharp rebound — likely in the low single‑digit percentage range year on year, depending on trade‑lane and region.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity declined ~2% YoY in Nov 2025 after steady reductions since May, driven by sharp double-digit drops in freighter availability.
- Passenger belly-hold capacity provides some relief, but not enough to offset the decline or restore overall capacity growth..
- Outlook for Q1 2026: Supply-side capacity, including dedicated freighters and belly-hold, is expected to remain stable, likely maintaining balance with demand growth. Spot rates and average yields could face pressure if demand does not accelerate..
Regulation/ News
- Ethiopian Airlines expanded its A350-900 fleet through a new placement agreement with Novus Aviation Capital announced at Dubai Airshow 2025, strengthening its long-haul and regional capacity and supporting growth across African, European, and Middle Eastern markets.
- Air China Cargo signed a contract on 14 November 2025 to purchase six new Airbus A350F freighters — making it the launch customer for that freighter type in mainland China. This signals a strong commitment to modernizing its long-haul cargo fleet.
- Airlines and carriers worldwide, especially in Asia, Middle East and Europe, launched new routes and networks in November 2025. For example, 50+ new international routes were announced across Asia, Europe and the Middle East in early November, reflecting renewed global connectivity.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Airlines seek realistic SAF policies, with European carriers urging greater EU support, citing costs 3–5 times higher than conventional fuel and limited supply that make current mandates economically challenging.
- Asia–Europe air cargo surge has been driven by U.S. trade restrictions, which redirected flows and created lane imbalances, placing additional pressure on European freight networks.
Asia
- Asia Pacific → U.S. demand +2% YoY Sep 2025, supported by tech and machinery shipments from Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia; e-commerce continues to drive Asia Pacific → Europe trade.
- Freighter redeployments and route realignments constrain capacity growth mainly from passenger belly space, but effective supply.
- Rates to remain modestly higher, with China–U.S. lanes facing the highest volatility risk due to tariff uncertainty.
Middle East and Africa
- South Africa exports are seeing rising demand and airfreight rates during the peak perishable season, driven by strong shipments of fresh produce to Europe and the Middle East amid tight capacity.
- U.A.E.–Europe lanes remain balanced, with supply and demand keeping rates stable through year-end, and minimal changes expected barring major fuel or demand shifts.
- Dubai inbound demand continues to grow, supported by fast fashion, electronics, and e-commerce, reinforcing Dubai’s role as a regional logistics and re-export hub.
Americas
- Canada–US trucking faces delays and congestion due to the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, resulting in longer transit times and adjusted shipping schedules.
- Mexico airfreight capacity has largely stabilized, particularly outside NLU/MEX, as seasonal temperatures and rainfall ease, allowing more predictable scheduling and rate stability.
- SSA & South America continue to face capacity constraints, with Argentina, Chile, and Peru seeing tight supply during the perishables season (berries, fruits, salmon), keeping demand and rates elevated.
Detailed Air Freight Market Update
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