Air Freight Market Update
November 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage rose 4% YoY YTD through Nov 2025, with November growth slightly higher than October
- Strong gains were seen in ex-Asia Pacific–Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, Europe–AP routes and ex-MEA
- The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects global air cargo volumes to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching around 71.6 million tonnes
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 2% YoY in Dec 2025, reversing the previous declining trend
- While passenger belly-hold capacity provided some relief against the ongoing steep decline in freighter availability, it was insufficient to fully support overall capacity growth
- IATA’s outlook suggests that cargo load factors (percentage of capacity filled) are expected to remain broadly stable rather than drop sharply, meaning airlines may not be adding capacity faster than demand
Regulation/ News
- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) goes into force in 2026, imposing tariffs on high‑carbon imports (steel, cement, aluminum, hydrogen, fertilizers) to level the playing field with EU climate standards and combat carbon leakage — significantly affecting exporters to the EU
- Apollo explores sale of Atlas Air Worldwide, reports surfaced that private equity firm Apollo is considering selling Atlas Air, a major global freighter operator
- EU Member States decided to introduce a flat customs duty of EUR 3 per shipment from July 2026 on packages valued at less than EUR 150 (so-called "low-value consignments") that are supplied directly to consumers in the EU via electronic commerce from third countries and have so far been exempt from customs duties
Get Logistics Insights by Email
Subscribe to our monthly market updates and get invited to exclusive webinars where our Freight Forwarding Experts answer all your questions on global trade.
Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in Nov (from 50.0 in Oct), marking a 5-month low due to weak export demand and declining factory employment.
- EU air cargo demand remained stable in Oct ’25 YoY; most EU origins show ~3% YoY growth, with Norway’s salmon exports up 23%, surpassing BRU volumes.
- European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) starts Jan 2026: shipments containing cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, or wood (including derived products) require a DDN or Y-Code; missing documentation may trigger customs holds and storage fees. Germany starts Jan 1, 2026, with the rest of the EU by end-2026.
Asia
- Global demand grew ~4% in YoY Oct, driven by Southeast Asia, China, and Taiwan, particularly for eCommerce, AI hardware, and cloud-related equipment.
- Capacity pressure is rising as dedicated freighter space remains tight; freight rates to the US and EU have increased by mid- to high-single-digit percentages, with this trend expected through mid-Dec.
- Market is on track to close 2025 at 4% YoY growth. Looking ahead, demand should stay resilient and capacity expansion modest, as freighter growth remains slow. Near term outlook points to a more balanced but firm market and easing gradually after Chinese New Year.
Middle East and Africa
- E‑commerce & manufacturing linkages; With continued Asian production and export growth (electronics, retail goods, etc.), Middle Eastern carriers and hubs act as key conduits to Europe, Africa, and beyond, especially for goods requiring fast and reliable shipping.
- Etihad Cargo expanded its freighter network for the winter 2025 season. From late Oct 2025, Etihad added new weekly freighter services linking its hub in Abu Dhabi with several global destinations: an East Midlands route (UK), and extra flights to Asia (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Ezhou), additional capacity to Riyadh (within Middle East), Paris and Frankfurt.
- In early November 2025, UAE air-cargo markets, as part of broader Middle East networks, are seeing rising demand and freight flows, reaching a “breaking-point moment” heading into Q4.
Americas
- US outbound demand is rising to AR, CL, CO and the EU. Transpacific eastbound experienced some short lived capacity challenges but have since settled and are expected to remain consistent into December with no further significant peak. Transpacific westbound remains stable.
- Due to the recent hurricane Melissa impacting Jamaica, the demand to KIN has increased significantly and the Cargo Infrastructure suffered some damages. All relief-goods movements must be coordinated with the MIA Gateway.
- South America is in high season for perishables, notably Argentina and Chile. Chile prioritizes blueberries and cherries, supplementing outbound capacity via alternative routes (e.g., via EZE), which reduces Argentina’s local outbound capacity.
Detailed Air Freight Market Update
Discover the latest trends, key market developments, and expert analyses that can impact your logistics strategy.
Want to Read More Freight Forwarding Stories?
Get the latest on Air, Ocean and Rail Freight Forwarding in your inbox every month, along with regular invitations to our webinars.
