Air Freight Market Update
October 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage rose +4% YoY YTD through September’25.
- With September growth flat versus the previous month, strong gains ex-Asia Pacific(AP)-Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, and Europe-AP.
- Global demand expected to show moderate growth in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending in advanced economies. Forecasts remain mixed, with e-commerce, electronics, and pharmaceuticals providing the strongest support, while traditional industrial and automotive volumes stay subdued.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity remained flat around 0% YoY in September – October’25.
- Following steady declines since May, driven by sharp double-digit reductions in freighter availability. While passenger bellyhold capacity offers some relief, it hasn’t been enough to offset the decline or restore growth.
- Global air cargo capacity is projected to remain tight but stable through Q4 2025, as airlines balance seasonal demand surges with disciplined network management. Freighter utilization remains high, while belly capacity continues to recover in line with sustained passenger traffic growth—particularly on transatlantic and Asia–Europe routes.
Regulation/ News
- Airbus 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF) shows the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft rising to 3,420 in the next 20 years.
- Etihad Cargo is rolling out an expanded Winter 2025 freighter schedule with new routes and added frequencies: e.g., UK’s East Midlands (Abu Dhabi→East Midlands +2 flights weekly), extra freighters to Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Ezhou, Riyadh, Paris and Frankfurt.
- Global export/duality rule changes: The U.S. issued a rule placing affirmative responsibility on U.S. exporters to check ownership/control of foreign firms in transactions; small exporters face a higher compliance burden.
- Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM) extended export‑controls on rare earths, technology, dual-use items (including extraterritorial application) via Announcements 61 & 62 & related lists.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Airlines seek realistic SAF policies, with European carriers urging greater EU support, citing costs 3–5 times higher than conventional fuel and limited supply that make current mandates economically challenging.
- Asia–Europe air cargo surge has been driven by U.S. trade restrictions, which redirected flows and created lane imbalances, placing additional pressure on European freight networks.
Asia
- Asia Pacific → U.S. demand +2% YoY Sep 2025, supported by tech and machinery shipments from Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia; e-commerce continues to drive Asia Pacific → Europe trade.
- Freighter redeployments and route realignments constrain capacity growth mainly from passenger belly space, but effective supply.
- Rates to remain modestly higher, with China–U.S. lanes facing the highest volatility risk due to tariff uncertainty.
Middle East and Africa
- South Africa exports are seeing rising demand and airfreight rates during the peak perishable season, driven by strong shipments of fresh produce to Europe and the Middle East amid tight capacity.
- U.A.E.–Europe lanes remain balanced, with supply and demand keeping rates stable through year-end, and minimal changes expected barring major fuel or demand shifts.
- Dubai inbound demand continues to grow, supported by fast fashion, electronics, and e-commerce, reinforcing Dubai’s role as a regional logistics and re-export hub.
Americas
- Canada–US trucking faces delays and congestion due to the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, resulting in longer transit times and adjusted shipping schedules.
- Mexico airfreight capacity has largely stabilized, particularly outside NLU/MEX, as seasonal temperatures and rainfall ease, allowing more predictable scheduling and rate stability.
- SSA & South America continue to face capacity constraints, with Argentina, Chile, and Peru seeing tight supply during the perishables season (berries, fruits, salmon), keeping demand and rates elevated.
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