Ocean Freight Market Update
January 2026
What’s shaping Ocean Freight in 2026? Explore how various global dynamics are impacting the industry.
Global Ocean Freight Market Overview
Demand
- Global demand growth continues: 4% YTD increase driven by Asia’s secondary trades; strong outlook through Chinese New Year and into 2026, with potential Suez reopening expected to further strengthen Asia-Europe flows.
Capacity
- 2026 fleet growth forecast at 4% (below 10-year avg. of 6%); effective capacity reduced by port congestion and Suez detour; carriers maintain full orderbooks to replace older vessels and secure market share.
Rates/News
- Rates expected to hold steady: Futures predict 2026 rates to stay near late-2025 levels, barring geopolitical shocks; carriers push for increases ahead of Chinese New Year.
- ETS surcharges rising sharply: Charges for Europe shipments to increase another 35–50%, boosting appeal of low-emission shipping alternatives
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Latest Trade Lane Updates
Far East Westbound
- Strong demand and tight capacity ahead of Chinese New Year: Vessel utilization at 99% with risk of cargo rolling; space is limited, bookings recommended 4 weeks in advance.
- Rising costs and limited space: EU ETS surcharges up 35–50%; carriers restrict bookings, driving volatility.
Transpacific Eastbound
- Soft market with weak demand: Vessel utilization down (WC 85%, EC 89%); space remains open across gateways.
- Blank sailings on the rise: 31 void sailings projected for January as carriers manage capacity ahead of Lunar New Year.
Asia to Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT)
- Middle East rates at yearly high: Tight space and strong short-term utilization; long-term rates remain stable.
- East Med sees continued rate hikes: GRIs implemented in Dec, more planned for Jan; vessel utilization around 90%, equipment imbalances persist.
Indian Subcontinent to Europe/Mediterranean
- Rate hikes effective Jan 2026: New increases announced; strong Q1 outlook with good volumes.
- No major constraints: Space and equipment remain available despite rising demand.
Indian Subcontinent to United States
- Volumes hit by tariffs: Demand remains weak with major declines; carriers anticipate recovery once tariffs stabilize.
- Capacity control measures: PSS/GRIs announced for Jan; blank sailings scheduled to counter oversupply in US trade.
Asia to Latin America
- Rates remain volatile: GRIs announced to prevent further declines, but success outlook is limited; carriers expect stronger demand in Jan–Feb.
- Capacity adjustments ahead: Utilization around 80%; carriers plan void sailings (7 WCSA/MX, 4 ECSA) to manage supply.
Trans-Atlantic
- Soft demand and rate pressure: Rates expected to stay weak into Q1; EU ETS surcharges rise as carriers cover 100% emissions; Montreal services impacted by draft restrictions.
- Operational volatility despite open space: Blank sailings (~10%) and rotation changes to manage oversupply; strikes and congestion in Antwerp/Rotterdam disrupt schedule reliability.
Detailed Ocean Freight Market Update
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