Air Freight Market Update
December 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage grew 4% YoY YTD through Dec 2025, with December surging 7%, the highest YoY figure recorded in H2 2025.
- Led by ex-Asia, ex-MEA, and ex-LATAM, while EU and AMER remained stable.
- Asia Pacific to Europe is growing more strongly, YoY, in the early weeks of 2026 than Asia Pacific to the US, although there are considerable differences between the performances of individual major markets from Asia Pacific.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 2% YoY in Dec 2025, reversing the previous declining trend.
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 5% YoY in Jan 2026. Airlines are further reducing their exposure to the transpacific trade, with the strongest capacity growth concentrated on Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East routes, as well as services linking North and South America.
- Short-term outlook (Q1–Q2 2026): no major capacity surge expected, as incremental freighter deliveries are largely offset by retirements; Lunar New Year, e-commerce demand, and geopolitical factors are likely to keep capacity tight and volatile, with a structural freighter shortage persisting into 2027–2028.
Regulation/ News
- EASA released Opinion No 01/2026, proposing amendments to EU Regulation (EU) No 965/2012 that would refine duties, training requirements for operations control personnel, and align EU rules with ICAO standards (e.g., extended diversion time operations — ETOPS). These amendments are pending formal adoption, but are part of the 2026 regulatory agenda.
- FAA issued new Airworthiness Directives (ADs) that have direct operational impact on cargo aircraft safety and maintenance compliance — e.g., a new AD affecting Boeing 787‑9/10 cargo barrier fittings, effective 20 Feb 2026.
- Lufthansa Cargo plans additional destinations in early 2026 on its A321 freighter network, including Rome‑Fiumicino (FCO) and Algiers (ALG), further strengthening intra‑Europe and Europe–Africa connectivity.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined to ~49.2 in Dec-25, (8-month low), confirming contraction in industrial output and softening export orders. This is expected to weigh on Europe’s outbound air cargo demand into early 2026.
- Trade flows are already reflecting the slowdown, with EU–US air cargo demand down ~8% MoM in Nov-25, pointing to weaker transatlantic volumes and slower end-market absorption.
- Upcoming EU Commission measures to remove low-value import duty exemptions from 2026 may dampen e-commerce inflows. While negative for volumes, this could partially offset broader demand weakness by easing capacity pressure on AP–EU lanes and improving space availability for B2B cargo.
Asia
- Air cargo demand continue to grow with Asia leading the growth. As per WACD, Asia grew 8% YOY in last 2 weeks of Nov.
- Spot rates from Asia to the US/EU continue to rise mid to high single digit in Nov. Overall AP average spot rate is trending upwards but is still 3% below last Nov level.
- Demand growth forecast at 2.6% in 2026 and outlook remains positive with on going expansion in Q4. Capacity is growing steadily with passenger belly network growth.
Middle East and Africa
- MEA air trade in 2025 is primarily driven by e-commerce and high-value, time-sensitive goods (pharma, perishables, electronics), with Africa supplying perishables and pharma growth, and Middle East hubs enabling fast transshipment between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
- Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Oman was signed to deepen bilateral trade and investment ties — expanding market access and services cooperation.
- Airports Council International (ACI) forecasts that Asia‑Pacific and the Middle East will continue to lead global air cargo growth through 2028 — driven by e‑commerce expansion, trade diversification, and investment in cargo infrastructure.
Americas
- In the final stretch of a volatile year, import tonnage has softened from recent peaks, indicating that Asia-Pacific to US air imports have largely moved past the seasonal high. In contrast, US export tonnage remains elevated over the same period and has yet to reflect the typical holiday-related slowdown that is likely to emerge in the coming weeks.
- Canada continues to face weak new export activity, with cautious inventory purchasing signaling subdued underlying industrial air cargo demand. This softness persists despite broader economic support from earlier export-led GDP growth and easing input cost inflation.
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