Air Freight Market Update
June 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Global Air Cargo Demand
- High demand driven by e-commerce and front-loaded consumer goods remain the strongest growth engine for air cargo. Tech and industrial freight continue to drive critical lanes for semiconductors and electronics, while pharma and perishables support premium cargo volumes
- Key lanes with significant growth YoY YTD May’25, Intra-Asia Pacific at 11%, consistently growing in double digits, Europe to North America at 8% and North America to Latin America at 18%
Global Air Cargo Capacity
- YoY Jun’25, growth for Asia Pacific to Europe, Europe to Asia Pacific and Middle East and Africa to Asia Pacific, significant declines in Intra-Asia Pacific and Asia Pacific to North America capacity
- Global air cargo capacity is projected to increase by approximately 3% to 4% YoY in 2025. This growth is expected to be outpaced by demand, which is anticipated to rise by 4% to 6%, leading to a potential tightening of capacity and upward pressure on rates
Regulation/News
- Supply-chain issues-from missing parts to delayed aircraft - forced airlines to delay fleet renewals, cancel or defer new routes, and reroute existing services. Simultaneously, geopolitical disruptions reshaped global flight paths.
- Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) alignment: EU adopted a delegated act laying down updated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) rules for aircraft emissions for CORSIA compliance (2021‑2026)
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Middle East Conflict Disrupts: Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran prompted the closure of Israeli airspace, impacting airfreight operations. Around 1,800 Europe-bound flights were affected, with 650 cancellations.
- Trends in Europe: Modest growth and rate stability in May’25, aided by lower fuel costs. Despite persistent trade and logistics challenges, Asia Pacific to Europe routes remained one of the primary drivers of global capacity expansion
Asia
- eCommerce demand on the Transpacific route remains subdued due to ongoing customs clearance challenges. A quarter-end rush is expected to support demand through June
- Capacity Update: Capacity remains stable on routes to the United States and Europe, while Intra-Asia capacity-especially to India is tighter. Overall, supply is sufficient to meet current demand levels.
Middle East and Africa
- Cargo Volumes Decline: Air cargo to/from the Middle East dropped sharply in Week 24, impacted by Eid Al-Adha holidays and regional conflict. Tonnage from Levant countries fell 21% week-on-week due to widespread flight cancellations.
- United Arab Emirates Leads Regional Recovery: Despite declines across most Gulf countries, the UAE saw a 15% week-on-week increase in cargo volumes, driven by strong demand to Africa (+36%) and the Middle East and South Asia region (+31%), especially to Kenya and West Africa.
Americas
- United States Inbound Volumes Soften: Inbound cargo volumes to the US remain soft amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. While tentative trade deals have been reached with the United Kingdom and China, talks with Japan and the Europe have yet to yield progress.
- United States–China Tariff Agreement: The US and China have reached a tentative tariff agreement, setting rates at 55% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods—well below the previously threatened 140%+ levels but still significantly higher than recent norms
Detailed Air Freight Market Update
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