Air Freight Market Update
January 2026
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2026? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage grew 8% YoY in Jan 26. Asia–Europe and intra-Asia lanes remain the primary growth engines supported by manufacturing concentration, e-commerce exports, and supply chain realignment toward Southeast Asia.
- Growth remains uneven across regions and segments. While technology-driven shipments and select trades continue to perform strongly, volatility persists due to weather disruptions, evolving trade policies, and reactive supply chain behaviours, making demand patterns increasingly unpredictable.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 5% YoY in Feb 26, airlines are further reducing their exposure to the transpacific trade and relocating to other trade corridors.
- Belly capacity continues to return with passenger recovery, lifting overall supply.
- Freighter redeployments, aircraft delivery delays, and network optimization are preventing broad market loosening. While capacity is growing, corridor-specific constraints continue to create localized tightness and reducing flexibility on key trade lanes.
Regulation/ News
- European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued several Proposed Airworthiness Directives (PADs) in February 2026 under its continuing airworthiness programme: PAD 26-032 (23 Feb 2026); PAD 26-030 (12 Feb 2026) and PAD 26-027 (9 Feb 2026). Risk-based proposals addressing identified unsafe conditions. Following stakeholder consultation, these may be adopted as mandatory EASA Airworthiness Directives (ADs).
- European Regions Airline Association (ERA) say many fuel suppliers missed the 14 Feb SAF documentation deadline under ReFuelEU Aviation, leaving airlines without verified SAF certificates required to demonstrate compliance and claim EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) allowances, and calling for timelier, standardised, aligned reporting to avoid compliance risk.
- EAS LATAM Airlines will launch its first-ever nonstop services from São Paulo/Guarulhos (GRU) to Amsterdam (AMS), Brussels (BRU) and Cape Town (CPT) in 2026.
- Lufthansa itself avoided fines in a lengthy EU cargo cartel case after the EU top court upheld €776 M in penalties on other airlines — highlighting regulatory risks in freight pricing.
- Emirates SkyCargo is adding two additional weekly freighters to India and will deploy a dedicated weekly freighter to Dhaka, Bangladesh, from April 2026, expanding capacity on high-demand trade lanes.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- AP–EU trade lane delivered the strongest intercontinental performance, driven by robust air cargo growth from VN, TW, CN, HK, and TH, led by high-tech, electronics, cloud infrastructure, and fashion shipments. Capacity utilization remained stable despite strong demand, supported by expanded EU carrier coverage and additional frequencies.
- EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) is set to materially reshape the AFR air cargo market. As the mechanism advances toward full implementation, early importer action is critical to ensure compliance and mitigate operational and cost risks.
- AMS operations experienced flight cancellations and significant delays in early 2026, as severe winter weather and heavy snowfall led carriers to restrict special cargo and reduce sales.
Asia
- Ex-Asia cargo demand for FY2025 is +7% vs 2024, with Dec 2025 performing strongly at +10% YoY. Asia's demand growth in 2026 is forecast at 4-5%. The 2025 volume surge effect due to tariffs is unlikely to recur.
- Global air cargo capacity increased +1% YoY in FY 2025 vs. FY 2024. Asia capacity declined -0.4% YoY in Jan 2025, with growth concentrated in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
- 2026 outlook: Expect moderate demand growth with capacity broadly aligned. In the near term, volumes are set to rebound from late January 2026 as shippers advance cargo ahead of factory shutdowns. eCom growth may further decelerate following the EU duty on low-value goods effective July 2026.
Middle East and Africa
- Middle East carriers recorded volume growth in late 2025, though concurrent capacity expansion tempered upward rate pressure.
- Africa-origin rates outperformed other regions in late December (approx. +11% WoW), signaling tighter capacity on select lanes.
- Egypt implemented the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system for all airfreight shipments effective 01 January 2026.
- Market outlook for the Middle East and broader airfreight sector remains uncertain, amid the gradual resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.
Americas
- Capacity constraints in North America are intensifying due to South America’s perishables peak, Valentine’s Day flower exports from Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Colombia, and Chile’s cherry and berry season limiting space for general cargo into the US, Europe, and China.
- Partial capacity relief is emerging as Brazil’s hatching-egg exports to Mexico decline, freeing aircraft space on Aeromexico, MasAir, and LATAM.
- North America demand outlook remains soft early Jan, is expected to rebound sharply late Jan, as shippers accelerate shipments ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns, tightening Asia–US capacity amid limited short-term supply.
- Network and risk factors continue to shape flows, with Red Sea/Suez disruptions driving modal shifts toward air for time-critical Asia–US cargo, and select airlines resuming Caracas operations while broader Venezuela airspace risks persist.
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