Ocean Freight Market Update

March 2026

What’s shaping Ocean Freight in 2026? Explore how various global dynamics are impacting the industry.

Global Ocean Freight Market Overview

Demand

Global ocean demand rose by 4% in 2025, driven by stronger secondary trades out of Asia, with growth expected across most routes except North American imports.

Capacity

Fleet expansion is forecast to slow to 3% in 2026, well below the ~6% average of the past decade, while effective capacity remains tight due to persistent port congestion and ongoing Suez detours, with full order books unlikely to boost supply until 2027.
Capacity pressures are set to intensify, as the Strait of Hormuz closure traps 1.4% of the global container fleet, driving tighter vessel space, potential congestion in Asian transshipment hubs, and rising bunker prices.

Rates/News

Rates are set to rise following recent geopolitical escalation, driven by war‑risk and emergency surcharges, equipment imbalances, and the prolonged Asia–Europe rerouting around Africa, with volatility expected to persist through 2026.
Geopolitical instability has intensified, delaying any large‑scale return to the Suez Canal by several months, with most carriers still avoiding the route for safety reasons and any eventual reopening expected to trigger months of reshuffling, disruption, and congestion.

Get Logistics Insights by Email

Subscribe to our monthly market updates and get invited to exclusive webinars where our Freight Forwarding Experts answer all your questions on global trade.

Subscribe to Logistics Insights

Latest Trade Lane Updates

Far East Westbound

Suez return is off the table for now as rerouting via the Cape continues; utilization to EURO NC is 90%+ with some roll risk, space is tight, and while RTM/ANR congestion has eased, Hamburg still faces long delays.

Transpacific Eastbound

Vessel utilization rose to 90% pre‑CNY, with massive blank sailings through March to counter weak demand.
High blank‑sailing levels continue as carriers manage overcapacity.

Asia to Middle East, North Africa and Turkey (MENAT)

Middle East & MENAT trade flows face significant disruption, with port closures, loss of access through the Strait of Hormuz, reduced service continuity, extended transit times, and war‑risk surcharges, as geopolitical instability and safety concerns keep key waterways closed or avoided.

Indian Subcontinent to Europe/Mediterranean

Demand is rising with a strong volume outlook and rate increases announced for early and late March; no space or equipment constraints reported.
Bangladesh port strikes are causing heavy operational disruption.

Indian Subcontinent to United States

GRI/PSS is in place from March 1, and rates are set to rise as US-bound capacity tightens toward March.

Asia to Latin America

Volumes briefly picked up during CNY with some cargo rolls, but this is expected to be short-lived as LATAM demand remains weak, inventories are full, and buying activity stays low.
Carriers are leveraging high blank‑sailing levels to push substantial GRIs for Feb–Mar, driving rate increases, particularly on WCSA/MX from the recent low point.