Air Freight Market Update
November 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage rose +4% YoY YTD through Oct 2025, with October growth flat versus September.
- Strong gains were seen in ex-Asia Pacific–Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, and Europe–AP routes.
- Outlook for Q1 2026: expect demand to continue growing over Q1, but at a moderate pace rather than a sharp rebound — likely in the low single‑digit percentage range year on year, depending on trade‑lane and region.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity declined ~2% YoY in Nov 2025 after steady reductions since May, driven by sharp double-digit drops in freighter availability.
- Passenger belly-hold capacity provides some relief, but not enough to offset the decline or restore overall capacity growth..
- Outlook for Q1 2026: Supply-side capacity, including dedicated freighters and belly-hold, is expected to remain stable, likely maintaining balance with demand growth. Spot rates and average yields could face pressure if demand does not accelerate..
Regulation/ News
- Ethiopian Airlines expanded its A350-900 fleet through a new placement agreement with Novus Aviation Capital announced at Dubai Airshow 2025, strengthening its long-haul and regional capacity and supporting growth across African, European, and Middle Eastern markets.
- Air China Cargo signed a contract on 14 November 2025 to purchase six new Airbus A350F freighters — making it the launch customer for that freighter type in mainland China. This signals a strong commitment to modernizing its long-haul cargo fleet.
- Airlines and carriers worldwide, especially in Asia, Middle East and Europe, launched new routes and networks in November 2025. For example, 50+ new international routes were announced across Asia, Europe and the Middle East in early November, reflecting renewed global connectivity.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in Nov (from 50.0 in Oct), marking a 5-month low due to weak export demand and declining factory employment.
- EU air cargo demand remained stable in Oct ’25 YoY; most EU origins show ~3% YoY growth, with Norway’s salmon exports up 23%, surpassing BRU volumes.
- European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) starts Jan 2026: shipments containing cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, or wood (including derived products) require a DDN or Y-Code; missing documentation may trigger customs holds and storage fees. Germany starts Jan 1, 2026, with the rest of the EU by end-2026.
Asia
- Global demand grew ~4% in YoY Oct, driven by Southeast Asia, China, and Taiwan, particularly for eCommerce, AI hardware, and cloud-related equipment.
- Capacity pressure is rising as dedicated freighter space remains tight; freight rates to the US and EU have increased by mid- to high-single-digit percentages, with this trend expected through mid-Dec.
- Market is on track to close 2025 at 4% YoY growth. Looking ahead, demand should stay resilient and capacity expansion modest, as freighter growth remains slow. Near term outlook points to a more balanced but firm market and easing gradually after Chinese New Year.
Middle East and Africa
- E‑commerce & manufacturing linkages; With continued Asian production and export growth (electronics, retail goods, etc.), Middle Eastern carriers and hubs act as key conduits to Europe, Africa, and beyond, especially for goods requiring fast and reliable shipping.
- Etihad Cargo expanded its freighter network for the winter 2025 season. From late Oct 2025, Etihad added new weekly freighter services linking its hub in Abu Dhabi with several global destinations: an East Midlands route (UK), and extra flights to Asia (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Ezhou), additional capacity to Riyadh (within Middle East), Paris and Frankfurt.
- In early November 2025, UAE air-cargo markets, as part of broader Middle East networks, are seeing rising demand and freight flows, reaching a “breaking-point moment” heading into Q4.
Americas
- US outbound demand is rising to AR, CL, CO and the EU. Transpacific eastbound experienced some short lived capacity challenges but have since settled and are expected to remain consistent into December with no further significant peak. Transpacific westbound remains stable.
- Due to the recent hurricane Melissa impacting Jamaica, the demand to KIN has increased significantly and the Cargo Infrastructure suffered some damages. All relief-goods movements must be coordinated with the MIA Gateway.
- South America is in high season for perishables, notably Argentina and Chile. Chile prioritizes blueberries and cherries, supplementing outbound capacity via alternative routes (e.g., via EZE), which reduces Argentina’s local outbound capacity.
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