Air Freight Market Update
January 2026
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2026? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Demand
- Global air cargo tonnage grew 4% YoY YTD through Dec 2025, with December surging 7%, the highest YoY figure recorded in H2 2025.
- Led by ex-Asia, ex-MEA, and ex-LATAM, while EU and AMER remained stable.
- Asia Pacific to Europe is growing more strongly, YoY, in the early weeks of 2026 than Asia Pacific to the US, although there are considerable differences between the performances of individual major markets from Asia Pacific.
Capacity
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 2% YoY in Dec 2025, reversing the previous declining trend.
- Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 5% YoY in Jan 2026. Airlines are further reducing their exposure to the transpacific trade, with the strongest capacity growth concentrated on Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East routes, as well as services linking North and South America.
- Short-term outlook (Q1–Q2 2026): no major capacity surge expected, as incremental freighter deliveries are largely offset by retirements; Lunar New Year, e-commerce demand, and geopolitical factors are likely to keep capacity tight and volatile, with a structural freighter shortage persisting into 2027–2028.
Regulation/ News
- EASA released Opinion No 01/2026, proposing amendments to EU Regulation (EU) No 965/2012 that would refine duties, training requirements for operations control personnel, and align EU rules with ICAO standards (e.g., extended diversion time operations — ETOPS). These amendments are pending formal adoption, but are part of the 2026 regulatory agenda.
- FAA issued new Airworthiness Directives (ADs) that have direct operational impact on cargo aircraft safety and maintenance compliance — e.g., a new AD affecting Boeing 787‑9/10 cargo barrier fittings, effective 20 Feb 2026.
- Lufthansa Cargo plans additional destinations in early 2026 on its A321 freighter network, including Rome‑Fiumicino (FCO) and Algiers (ALG), further strengthening intra‑Europe and Europe–Africa connectivity.
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- AP–EU trade lane delivered the strongest intercontinental performance, driven by robust air cargo growth from VN, TW, CN, HK, and TH, led by high-tech, electronics, cloud infrastructure, and fashion shipments. Capacity utilisation remained stable despite strong demand, supported by expanded EU carrier coverage and additional frequencies.
- EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) is set to materially reshape the AFR air cargo market. As the mechanism advances towards full implementation, early importer action is critical to ensure compliance and mitigate operational and cost risks.
- AMS operations experienced flight cancellations and significant delays in early 2026, as severe winter weather and heavy snowfall led carriers to restrict special cargo and reduce sales.
Asia
- Ex-Asia cargo demand for FY2025 is +7% vs 2024, with Dec 2025 performing strongly at +10% YoY. Asia's demand growth in 2026 is forecast at 4-5%. The 2025 volume surge effect due to tariffs is unlikely to recur.
- Global air cargo capacity increased +1% YoY in FY 2025 vs. FY 2024. Asia capacity declined -0.4% YoY in Jan 2025, with growth concentrated in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
- 2026 outlook: Expect moderate demand growth with capacity broadly aligned. In the near term, volumes are set to rebound from late January 2026 as shippers advance cargo ahead of factory shutdowns. eCom growth may further decelerate following the EU duty on low-value goods effective July 2026.
Middle East & Africa
- Middle East carriers recorded volume growth in late 2025, though concurrent capacity expansion tempered upward rate pressure.
- Africa-origin rates outperformed other regions in late December (approx. +11% WoW), signalling tighter capacity on select lanes.
- Egypt implemented the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system for all airfreight shipments effective 01 January 2026.
- Market outlook for the Middle East and broader airfreight sector remains uncertain, amid the gradual resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.
Americas
- Capacity constraints in North America are intensifying due to South America’s perishables peak, Valentine's Day flower exports from Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Colombia, and Chile’s cherry and berry season limiting space for general cargo into the US, Europe, and China.
- Partial capacity relief is emerging as Brazil’s hatching-egg exports to Mexico decline, freeing aircraft space on Aeromexico, MasAir, and LATAM.
- North America demand outlook remains soft early Jan, is expected to rebound sharply late Jan, as shippers accelerate shipments ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns, tightening Asia–US capacity amid limited short-term supply.
- Network and risk factors continue to shape flows, with Red Sea/Suez disruptions driving modal shifts towards air for time-critical Asia–US cargo, and select airlines resuming Caracas operations while broader Venezuela airspace risks persist.
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