Air Freight Market Update
July 2025
What’s shaping Air Freight in 2025? Explore how various dynamics are impacting global Air Cargo.
Global Air Cargo Update
Global Air Cargo Demand
- High demand driven by e-commerce and front-loaded consumer goods remain the strongest growth engine for air cargo. Tech and industrial freight continue to drive critical lanes for semiconductors and electronics, while pharma and perishables support premium cargo volumes
- Key lanes with significant growth YoY YTD May’25, Intra-Asia Pacific at 11%, consistently growing in double digits, Europe to North America at 8% and North America to Latin America at 18%
Global Air Cargo Capacity
- YoY Jun’25, growth for Asia Pacific to Europe, Europe to Asia Pacific and Middle East and Africa to Asia Pacific, significant declines in Intra-Asia Pacific and Asia Pacific to North America capacity
- Global air cargo capacity is projected to increase by approximately 3% to 4% YoY in 2025. This growth is expected to be outpaced by demand, which is anticipated to rise by 4% to 6%, leading to a potential tightening of capacity and upward pressure on rates
Regulation/News
- Supply-chain issues-from missing parts to delayed aircraft - forced airlines to delay fleet renewals, cancel or defer new routes, and reroute existing services. Simultaneously, geopolitical disruptions reshaped global flight paths.
- Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) alignment: EU adopted a delegated act laying down updated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) rules for aircraft emissions for CORSIA compliance (2021‑2026)
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Regional Air Freight News
Europe
- Stabilized summer belly hold capacity helped moderate Europe-bound rates. Transatlantic rates remained elevated—around 20% higher YoY—while Europe–Asia rates saw a slight decline.
- Weak European Industrial Demand: The Eurozone manufacturing PMI stayed below 50 in June (at ~49.5), indicating contraction. This points to continued softness in air cargo demand for industrial goods like machinery and components.
Asia
- Shifting supply chains to Southeast Asia boosted demand on Intra-Asia routes, reflecting broader regional realignment.
- Asia outbound flight operations to and via the Middle East have resumed; however, continued avoidance of Israeli and Iranian airspace is resulting in longer flight times and reduced payload capacity.
Middle East & Africa
- Emirates SkyCargo, Etihad Cargo, and Qatar Airways Cargo continue to expand pharmaceutical, e‑commerce, and temperature-controlled services. Emirates extended freighter routes (e.g. to Copenhagen), and Etihad doubled services to Africa.
- Q3 2025 is expected to reflect continued normalized demand for the Middle East region, with e‑commerce and pharma sectors stabilizing growth, while Africa may show incremental recovery but still lags in utilization metrics.
Americas
- Mexico: High temperatures and severe rains in Mexico City are causing daily cargo offloads on PAX flights from MEX; freighter payloads at NLU are also reduced, though impact remains limited for now.
- Canada: Tariff-related disruptions are affecting AP–Canada traffic; recent U.S.–Canada tariff moves led some shippers (e.g., from Malaysia) to bypass Canada entirely, creating volatile demand and complicating flight planning.
Detailed Air Freight Market Update
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