DHL Highlights North America’s Trade Resilience Ahead of USMCA Review, Sees Opportunities and Competitiveness from Trade Agreements

• The company notes the critical role trade agreements play in supporting economic growth, supply chain resilience, and global competitiveness of the countries involved.
• DHL  emphasizes that stable and predictable trade frameworks are essential to facilitating cross-border commerce and helping guarantee continuity of business for companies of all sizes across the region during geopolitical challenges.
  

DHL executives are reinforcing their confidence in the strength and future of North American trade, underscoring the critical role trade agreements play in economic growth, supply chain resilience, and business success. This comes as policymakers from the United States, Mexico, and Canada prepare for the 2026 Joint Review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

During a recent company forum in Washington, D.C., company leaders and global trade experts emphasized that the region enters the review from a position of resilience, competitiveness, and shared economic opportunity. projected confidence in North America's underlying economic resilience. Nonetheless, the upcoming July review arrives amid intensifying trade friction as policymakers grapple with mounting disputes over automotive rules of origin, dairy access, and tightening restrictions on Chinese investment in the region.

“At its core, trade should be viewed as an enabler of growth. When policies prioritize predictability and simplicity, companies can plan, invest, and expand with confidence,” said Andrew Williams, CEO for DHL Express Americas. “For logistics providers and customers alike, the ability to move goods efficiently across borders while reducing friction and complexity is essential to sustaining integrated supply chains across North America.”

No Global Retreat from Cross-Border Activity

In an update shared by Professor Steven Altman of New York University Stern School of Business, lead author of the biennial DHL Global Connectedness Report, data shows that the world’s level of globalization remains stable and North America continues to play a major role in global trade flows. The report, a comprehensive analysis of the state and trajectory of globalization based on more than 9 million data points tracking international flows of trade, capital, information, and people, found that: 

• Global trade as a share of economic output increased slightly in 2025 and stands just below its all-time high.
• Trade in physical goods grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the volatile Covid-19 pandemic period.
• International business investment remains robust, with the United States experiencing a strong rise in inward investment commitments.
• People flows have fully recovered and reached a record high, reinforcing the human connectivity that supports commerce.
  

Altman noted that despite geopolitical tensions, there is no broad shift from globalization to regionalization, and no global retreat from cross-border activity. Instead, companies are reconfiguring supply chains to manage risk while maintaining global reach.

According to Altman, “The USMCA is one of the world’s most important trade agreements. It enables efficient and reliable supply chains to operate across three of the world’s largest and most complementary economies.” He noted that the U.S., Canada, and Mexico rank as the world’s 1^st, 9^th, and 13^th largest economies, and that close trade ties among them [supported by USMCA as a trilateral agreement]boost the competitiveness of major industries across all three countries.

A Region Positioned for Growth

Driven by deeply integrated supply chains across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, key industries—automotive, manufacturing, and agriculture—operate seamlessly across borders, making strong USMCA coordination essential to efficiency and resilience. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Canada and Mexico have remained the United States’ leading trading partners since the USMCA took effect in 2020. Key outcomes of the agreement include:

• Intra-regional trade in goods and services increased by 37 percent
• Jobs supported by USMCA-related trade grew by 18 percent
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) across North America rose by 16 percent

This strong regional performance underscores the scale of North America’s integrated trade agreement.

These regional gains are further reflected in bilateral trade flows between the United States and its North American partners. The U.S. Department of Commerce reports that two-way trade in goods and services between the United States and Mexico reached $935 billion in 2024, making Mexico the largest U.S. trading partner. Canada remains equally critical, accounting for 16.8 percent of all U.S. exports, with total two-way trade reaching $917.4 billion in 2024. 

Similarly, DHL Express reports that Mexico is the top destination for its U.S. outbound volume, followed by Canada. The U.S. is also the leading destination for outbound volume from Mexico and Canada, with Canada ranking second for Mexico’s outbound volume, and Mexico remaining among Canada’s top 10 trade lanes.

Additionally, recent DHL Express data shows small and medium enterprises (SMEs) remain actively engaged in North American trade, with the number of U.S. SME exporters holding broadly steady and the number of U.S. SME imports rising nearly 4% year over year, despite increasing trade complexity such as additional tariffs and evolving de minimis rules.

DHL Express also reports that trade flows remain predominantly import-driven into the U.S., with import volumes up approximately 24% from 2024 to 2025. Canada and Mexico continue to anchor SME trade activity: Canada stands out as a stable, high-frequency corridor, while Mexico is emerging as a fast-growing and increasingly dynamic lane.

In the broader freight forwarding market, DHL Global Forwarding has observed a normalization of market conditions following earlier acceleration in airfreight demand, as customers continued adjusting sourcing and distribution strategies amid the evolving U.S. tariff and USMCA environment. While trade patterns continue to evolve, uncertainty around the future treatment of USMCA-related goods may influence how supply chains and regional trade flows develop going forward, depending on product category and tariff outcomes.

For DHL eCommerce, cross border volumes from the U.S. to Canada and Mexico remained stable in 2025, while Canada to U.S. volumes dropped significantly following the end of the de minimis exemption.

Ensuring Business Readiness    

As companies await the outcome of the USMCA joint review, many are strengthening their supply chains by exploring a range of potential scenarios.

“Last year’s shifts in trade and tariff policies gave many organizations an opportunity to stress-test their supply chains and identify where greater flexibility and resilience were needed,” said Mark Kunar, CEO, DHL Supply Chain North America. “While some customers are taking a wait-and-see approach to the USMCA review, their focus is on building supply chains that can quickly adapt to changing conditions and avoid single points of failure.”

Leveraging AI tools, and deep customs, trade, and logistics expertise, DHL Supply Chain is partnering with customers on advanced network design and scenario planning, helping them evaluate the potential impact of policy changes and identify optimal responses. This includes modeling alternative sourcing strategies, distribution footprints, and cross-border flows to ensure continuity across a range of trade and regulatory outcomes. This work is supported by the company’s network of operations, enabling customers to efficiently coordinate the movement and handoff of goods across borders.

“We see every day how powerful international trade can be for businesses and economies. Our role as logistics providers is to help demystify global trade and make it more accessible and seamless, especially in an environment where rules and tariffs continue to evolve,” Williams said.

USMCA Joint Review Scenarios

While the three countries have already begun sharing early policy priorities, the first official review of the USMCA will take place this July. At that meeting, leaders can agree to extend the current trade pact for another full 16 years. They also have the option to negotiate and pass an updated, modernized version of the deal. If the countries cannot reach an agreement, the USMCA will not expire immediately. Instead, it will enter a 10-year countdown toward a 2036 expiration date. This countdown would trigger mandatory annual reviews, giving all three countries a decade to resolve pain points, update trade terms, or potentially pursue separate bilateral deals.