DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026

Based on more than 9 million data points tracking international flows of trade, capital, information, and people, the report offers the most comprehensive view of globalization available – making it an essential resource for any business with cross-border trade ambitions.

Global Trade in 2026: Holding Firm in an Era of Uncertainty

Despite a volatile 2025 marked by tariff increases, geopolitical tensions, and persistent uncertainty in global supply chains, international trade has proven more resilient than many forecasts suggested. The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 finds that global globalization remained stable at 25% in 2025, matching its record high first reached in 2022. This indicates that cross-border flows of goods, capital, information, and people have not contracted, with businesses adapting to global complexity rather than retreating from international markets.

Trade performance in 2025 was especially strong. Global goods trade expanded at its fastest pace since 2017 (excluding the post-pandemic rebound), supported by front-loaded U.S. imports ahead of new tariffs and China’s growing export diversification toward non-U.S. markets. At the same time, rapid investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure fueled demand for semiconductors, data transmission equipment, and other AI-related goods, which WTO estimates suggest accounted for 42% of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of the year.

Looking ahead, rising tariffs are expected to slightly moderate growth but not reverse the long-term expansion of global trade. Forecasts project global goods trade to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6% through 2029, broadly in line with the past decade. Importantly, most global trade flows occur outside the United States, while many countries continue to diversify partnerships and pursue new trade agreements, further extending global supply chains across regions.

Overall, the outlook for cross-border commerce remains positive. Rather than retreating, global trade is evolving and reconfiguring. Companies that understand shifting trade flows and emerging market linkages will be best positioned to capture future growth opportunities, underscoring the value of insights from the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026.

Key Takeaways from the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026

The report provides insights that can help your business identify and access new international markets, while DHL Express offers the global logistics expertise to support your expansion.

Open a DHL Express Business Account to enable fast, reliable shipping to more than 220 countries and territories worldwide, backed by end-to-end support from international logistics experts at every stage.