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The Logistics Trend Radar 7.0 - Insights. Shaping Tomorrow

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Impact:
Significant
Adoption:
5 - 10 Years
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The Drone market environment

Source: Drone Industry Insights (2023): The Drone Market Environment Map 2022

Relevance to the Future of Logistics

Drone Deliveries

Logistics volumes continue to grow while available delivery labor shrinks. Many cities are urgently attempting to tackle traffic congestion and companies want to deliver to customers everywhere. A solution that answers these needs could be drone delivery, covering the first, middle, and last mile. However, for the foreseeable future last-mile delivery will be focused on rural areas. While drones do the work, existing labor can be upskilled or assigned to value-adding tasks, fewer vehicles are needed, safety is increased, and rural delivery costs are reduced. Examples of progress in the area of heavy-lift cargo drones include Sabrewing’s pre-production drone capable of lifting a record-breaking 376 kg (829 lb) payload, Dronamics’ cargo drone technology, and Elroy Air’s first vertical takeoff and landing.

Recently, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) granted numerous drone companies approval for BVLOS flights. Other countries are likely to follow this lead. Even so, DHL anticipates limited growth in commercial drone deliveries within the next five years, for the same reason that growth has been limited since 2013: aviation regulations. At DHL, we believe there will be growth in niche use cases, such as deliveries within large private compounds and deliveries of critical or medical goods to rural areas, but growth is less likely for deliveries in urban and other built-up areas.

Security & Surveillance

It is challenging to patrol and secure large facilities, and human vision is limited; if an intruder is hiding, detection may not be easy. Rather than risk overlooking intrusion, drones with cameras can be deployed. This visual data can help accelerate patrol tasks, potentially increasing the daily number of patrols at randomized intervals. Enabled by AI-based systems, companies can expect increased accuracy of threat identification, less chance of missing suspicious activity, and more information captured with a bird’s eye view of the facility.

Drones are also getting smarter, leveraging 5G for real-time data transfer and processing. They can now operate with increased speed, reduced latency, and improved reliability. Some even allow for fully autonomous operations. For example, security staff do not need to manually launch and retrieve drone-in-a-box security solutions, nor swap and change their batteries, and tethered solutions even allow drones to stay airborne indefinitely.

There is a disadvantage to consider. As this technology has developed, malicious use has also increased. Such activity is today being tackled with counter uncrewed aerial systems (C-UAS), particularly focused on removing the menace of rogue drones disrupting flights and having a negative financial impact at commercial and cargo airports. “Soft-kill” methods can also be deployed, such as jamming or cutting off the drone’s communication with its pilot or source, and “hard-kill” methods, such as physically taking down a drone, using nets, ammunition, and even eagles.

Inventory Management

Currently, many logistics organizations rely on human personnel to check inventory in facilities, particularly shelves for pallets. As shipments enter, rotate, and leave the warehouse, workers must assess and confirm stock counts and vacancy rates on shelves. This manual approach makes it difficult to obtain a real-time view of inventory data. Another typical challenge is that counting inventory in warehouse racking systems may involve heights, a danger for the workforce. While several technologies aim to automate this process, drones are seen as a viable solution for what can be an expensive, time-consuming, and risky activity.

Instead of deploying dozens of workers to scan codes and record placements, companies can use drones equipped with cameras to scan and count inventory quickly. This removes the need for specialized equipment like aerial work platforms to examine the higher shelves. A possible future state would involve fleets of drones operating autonomously, with only one worker needed to manage and assess flagged circumstances.

As completing inventory counts would no longer require a large workforce, supply chains could benefit from more frequent stock counts. This would lead to increased inventory data accuracy, enable warehouse optimization, and eliminate risk for staff.

DHL has already tested and deployed drone cycle counting solutions globally, including the Eyesee solution from Hardis for customers such as Dyson, and continues to collaborate with technology companies in Malaysia, Spain, and other countries around the world.

Dimensioning & Inspecting Large Assets

Dimensioning and inspecting large assets manually can take many hours, as mismeasuring or missing, for example, an equipment fracture can have costly consequences. Also these tasks may risk worker safety, especially if personnel are required to climb heights or walk on uneven surfaces to dimension and inspect large assets. Drone technology can make such activities more efficient.

Taking the example of stockpile dimensioning, drones with improved AI and sensor technology can measure amassed stock volumes with below-centimeter precision in a matter of hours instead of days. Several technologies can be deployed in this application. Drones may use a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receiver to connect to more satellites for improved precision. They can use real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning and ground control points (GCPs) to achieve consistent data alignment over time. This is vital for monitoring ever-changing stockpiles – a significant advantage as, without RTK or GCPs, maps may shift several meters, resulting in inaccurate stockpile measurements, especially if comparing data from different dates. And to process the captured images, a photogrammetry engine and software can be used, such as the DJI Terra solution.

A good example of a large asset to be inspected is an airplane. This has always been done manually with inspectors walking around an airplane to assess its overall condition and compliance with safety standards. General visual inspections (GVIs) are then carried out to inspect, locate, and evaluate any visually obvious damage, failure, or anomaly. Many times, ladders, scaffolding, and cherry pickers are involved when something is out of reach and viewed from the ground. New solutions, such as the solution from Dutch startup Mainblades, provide a great alternative. Drones can be used to autonomously inspect all sides of an airplane without the need for additional equipment and without putting inspectors at risk. The captured data can be reviewed later by the inspectors.

Using drones eliminates safety risks and significantly reduces time and staffing requirements. Spending less time on currently manual tasks allows for faster turnaround and more missions. Warehouses also can minimize personnel numbers for inventory tracking while also getting updated inventory data more regularly, thus increasing inventory visibility. As well as lowering operational costs, these efficiencies are likely to have a positive effect on the company’s brand and reputation.

Challenges

Challenge 1

Global and country-specific aviation authorities have some ways to go in creating a framework that allows drone operators to thrive while protecting public and manned airspaces.

Challenge 2

Consumer drones have been used in warfare as unconventional weapons, in organized crime, and in irresponsible ways, creating a negative image of this technology – an obstacle to regulator and public acceptance.

Challenge 3

Social acceptance is jeopardized by drone noise levels, as well as privacy and safety fears.

Challenge 4

There is a high price tag for specialized drones designed for industrial and commercial use; these models require advance chips, technologies, and sensors.

Global and country-specific aviation authorities have some ways to go in creating a framework that allows drone operators to thrive while protecting public and manned airspaces.
Consumer drones have been used in warfare as unconventional weapons, in organized crime, and in irresponsible ways, creating a negative image of this technology – an obstacle to regulator and public acceptance.
Social acceptance is jeopardized by drone noise levels, as well as privacy and safety fears.
There is a high price tag for specialized drones designed for industrial and commercial use; these models require advance chips, technologies, and sensors.

Outlook

Even though drone technology is developing rapidly, enabling many use cases in logistics and supply chains, regulations, social acceptance, and cost remain key challenges in deploying commercial drones.

For this reason, we here at DHL anticipate drone uptake occurring in logistics at different paces. There is likely to be very slow adoption in the public space, especially for last-mile deliveries in dense areas. However, we expect the number of applications in remote areas to increase in the next few years. And we see greater adoption of this trend in the near future for applications such as inventory counting within logistics facilities and on private property.

This trend should be monitored TO SOME EXTENT,with use cases in some applications that can already be addressed today.

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Sources

  1. Dronelife (2023): The Top 3 Challenges Facing the Drone Industry: Elsight and P3Tech’s 2023 Drone Market Survey