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How current geopolitical issues are reshaping India’s export potential

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India’s role in the global economy has been evolving rapidly.

Over the past decade, India has transformed into a key hub for advanced manufacturing, electronics assembly, and pharmaceuticals. In fact, India’s pharmaceutical sector has grown from US$18.4 billion in 2020 to US$23 billion in 20241 and is one of the top 20 countries in this sector by export value2.

With India’s growing influence in global trade, current geopolitical issues and tensions between major economic powers are redefining how goods move and markets operate. While these shifts introduce uncertainty, they also open significant new avenues for businesses that export from India.

1. "China Plus One" strategy: India's moment to shine

A major trend among multinationals is the “China Plus One” strategy, which means diversifying supply chains by keeping China operations while adding production in another country3. Companies adopt it to reduce risk from rising labor costs, stricter regulations, and geopolitical tensions, like the U.S.-China trade disputes and regional supply chain disruptions.

India is emerging as a top choice for this shift. Its skilled workforce, competitive costs, and growing manufacturing base make it ideal for new operations. Government incentives like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme4, especially for electronics and pharmaceuticals, further boost India’s appeal to global businesses.

2. Geopolitical de-risking and the rise of protectionist policies

The core trend defining 2025 is geopolitical de-risking. Countries and companies are reducing reliance on any single region to avoid instability and supply disruptions. For Indian exporters, this is an opportunity to attract business from companies seeking reliable alternatives and expand their global presence.

At the same time, rising protectionist trade policies are compounding the problems faced by Indian exporters. Businesses now face sudden barriers, like unexpected 50% tariffs5 on certain Indian goods, while conflicts along key shipping routes, such as the Red Sea, force costly detours, higher freight charges, and longer transit times6.

India’s new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP 2024) seeks to bolster export growth and integrate the country more deeply into global supply chains7. Yet, the rise of protectionism makes it more difficult for exporters to gain a foothold in established markets.

To navigate these challenges, Indian companies are refining their trade strategy. International shipping from India now requires careful planning, reliable logistics, and a proactive approach to documentation and customs compliance.

DHL Express parcels being scanned

3. Establishment of free-trade agreements (FTAs)

Amid rising protectionism, India is leveraging Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to enhance resilience and secure new import and export opportunities. By negotiating and formalizing trade agreements with other countries, India aims to offset the risks posed by geopolitical headwinds while ensuring its exporters gain easier access to key global markets.

Signed FTAs

  • India-UK FTA: Officially signed and formalized on July 24, 20258, this agreement is expected to enhance bilateral trade by US$34 billion annually.
  • India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA): Signed on March 10, 2024, and set for implementation on October 1, 2025, this pact secures a landmark US$100 billion investment commitment from the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) over 15 years8. This agreement complements ongoing discussions around a potential India-EU free trade agreement, which could further elevate India’s presence in Europe.

FTAs in the works

India continues to negotiate high-impact agreements to strengthen its export landscape:

  • India-EU Free Trade Agreement – Negotiations are underway with the European Union9 to open up one of the world’s largest consumer markets. Trade with the EU represents a high-stakes opportunity for exporters from India across manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and food products.
  • India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) – This upcoming agreement seeks to broaden trade with the Middle East beyond energy, covering commodities, technology, and services.

Maximising export opportunities with speedy and reliable delivery

Geopolitical shifts, from the rise of the China Plus One strategy to de-risking supply chains, escalating protectionist policies, and the push for new free trade agreements, have come to define the global trade landscape.

While these geopolitical issues can create uncertainty, they also highlight openings for exporters. The key lies in speed, reliability, and the ability to navigate complex international shipping requirements.

For businesses looking to export from India, partnering with a trusted worldwide express logistics and supply chain provider is critical. DHL Express offers end-to-end support for Indian businesses, from expert guidance on customs documentation and compliance to ensuring fast, reliable delivery to new and established markets.

Start your global expansion journey with a logistics partner that combines expertise, reach, and reliability. Open a DHL Express business account today and turn India’s export opportunities into tangible global success.

Frequently asked questions about how geopolitics affects exports from India

The core geopolitical issues are de-risking, rising protectionism, and regional conflicts impacting shipping. These trends, including major power tensions and trade restrictions, are redefining global trade. This uncertainty is precisely what is driving the "China Plus One" strategy, as companies urgently seek to diversify their supply chains.

Indian exporters face sudden and unexpected trade barriers, such as new 50% tariffs on certain goods. This is compounded by severe logistical disruptions, like the conflicts along key shipping routes, which force costly detours, higher freight charges, and longer transit times. This makes navigating customs compliance and maintaining delivery schedules more critical than ever.

Geopolitical issues are fundamentally reshaping international trade strategy by introducing significant uncertainty. They force companies to reduce their reliance on any single region to avoid supply disruptions. While these shifts create risks, they also open significant new avenues for exporters from India who can prove their reliability and capitalize on global de-risking trends.