When a sprinter on the Cape Flats is driven by the south-easterly wind at their back their stride forward is propelled faster than a normal walk in the park. That’s what geographic tailwinds feel like a surge of natural momentum that can turn effort into advantage.
For South African exporters and SMEs looking to make their mark on the global stage, understanding and riding these winds could be the difference between getting left behind and breaking away from the pack.
Reading the Winds of Change
The story of global trade isn’t one of collapse, but of transformation. DHL’s idea of “geographic tailwinds” captures this shift: new, promising trade corridors are opening up, shaped by some powerful trends:
“China + X” Diversification
Rising manufacturing costs and shifting geopolitics mean companies aren’t putting all their eggs in one basket anymore. Many are looking beyond China to vibrant markets across Southeast Asia and further afield what’s often called the “China+1” or “China+X” strategy. DHL’s focus on key GT20 economies puts it right at the heart of this transition, ready to connect businesses with the world’s most dynamic supply chains.
Supply Chain Reinvention
The disruptions of the pandemic, along with ongoing political tensions, have forced companies to rethink how and where they source and ship. Today, resilience is everything. DHL’s combination of global scale and local expertise gives South African businesses the confidence to navigate these new complexities, building supply chains that are closer, safer, and smarter.
Investment Booms in the GT20
Across Latin America, Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the so-called GT20 countries are seeing a flood of domestic and foreign investment especially in infrastructure and manufacturing. These rising stars are quickly becoming new engines of global trade.
Mapping Opportunity: DHL Trade Atlas 2025
Launched in March 2025 and developed with NYU Stern, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 offers a deep dive into trade flows across nearly 200 countries. The outlook? Cautiously optimistic. Forecasts suggest global goods trade will grow at about 3.1% a year between 2024 and 2029 even with possible new U.S. tariffs in play.
Highlights from the Atlas:
India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are set to be among the fastest-growing trade players, both in speed and scale, over the next five years.
The average distance goods travel in trade continues to rise 5,000 km in 2024, with intra-regional trade at a record low, underscoring how interconnected the world remains.
With interactive maps and detailed country profiles, the Atlas is a practical tool for South African exporters mapping out their next move.
Geoeconomic Tensions and Trade Realignment
Of course, headwinds exist. The U.S.–China trade dispute, if contained, could shave about 0.6 percentage points off global trade growth by 2026. If it escalates, the impact could be four times greater.
Sectors like automotive, transport equipment and metals especially in China and the EU face the most risk, with up to USD 67 billion in exports on the line between 2025 and 2026.
Trade is also being redrawn along geopolitical lines. Countries with closer political ties now account for 60% of global trade, up from 58% in 2022. But this isn’t just about risk, it’s about opportunity. Countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, UAE and South Africa are among 25 emerging trade champions expected to increase their share of global exports by 1.6 percentage points, worth a staggering USD 1.27 trillion over five years.
DHL’s Strategy 2030 leans into these shifts, with a strong emphasis on high-growth sectors like Life Sciences & Healthcare, New Energy, E-commerce and Digital Sales. In the Middle East, DHL is investing €500 million by 2030 to expand logistics infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, strengthening airports, warehouses, fleets and last-mile delivery.
Despite the uncertainty, DHL’s leadership remains positive. Ken Lee, CEO for Asia Pacific, calls globalisation “too big to fail,” pointing to surging foreign direct investment in Vietnam (up 34.7%) and Indonesia (up 12.7%). DHL is already expanding in 20 markets where supply chain reconfiguration is creating fresh demand.
What This Means for South Africa
South Africa is in a sweet spot. As a GT20 nation and a recognised emerging trade hub, it stands to benefit from:
Steady investment in manufacturing and infrastructure
The ability to pivot towards diverse and fast-growing markets
- A logistics network that’s plugged into the world
For South African exporters, understanding these tailwinds and leveraging DHL’s global reach and on-the-ground know-how can unlock faster, more resilient trade growth.
Ready to Catch the Wind?
Global trade is complex. But for those who know where to look, the currents are strong and the opportunities are real.
From shifting trade routes to the rise of new export powerhouses across Asia and Africa, DHL is helping South African businesses chart a confident path forward.
Planning to take your exports further? Partner with DHL and harness the strength of geographic tailwinds. From bespoke supply chain solutions to reliable cross-border logistics, DHL is ready to help you sprint ahead. Open a business account today and get your company ready for the global race.
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