Everything U.S. Businesses Need to Know About Trade, Tariffs, Nearshoring, and Supply Chains in 2026

Based on more than 9 million data points tracking international flows of trade, capital, information, and people, the report offers the most comprehensive view of globalization available – making it an essential resource for any business with cross-border trade ambitions.

Global Trade in 2026: Holding Firm in an Era of Uncertainty

Despite a volatile 2025 shaped by tariff hikes, geopolitical friction, and ongoing uncertainty around global supply chains, international trade proved more resilient than many expected. The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 shows that the world’s level of globalization held steady at 25% last year – matching the record high first reached in 2022. In other words, cross-border flows of goods, capital, information, and people have not retreated. Businesses may be adapting, but they are not pulling back from global markets.

Trade performance in 2025 was particularly striking. Global goods trade grew faster than in any year since 2017 (excluding the pandemic rebound). Early in the year, U.S. importers accelerated shipments ahead of new tariff increases. At the same time, China redirected exports toward non-U.S. markets, sustaining overall global volumes. Meanwhile, surging investment in AI infrastructure drove significant increases in trade for semiconductors, data transmission equipment, and other AI-related products – which, according to WTO estimates, accounted for 42% of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of the year.

Looking ahead, higher tariffs are expected to modestly slow – but not reverse – trade expansion. Global goods trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.6% through 2029, in line with the past decade. For U.S. importers and exporters, this projected 2.6% global annual trade growth suggests stable demand despite tariff-driven volatility. Crucially, most global trade flows do not involve the United States, and many countries are actively diversifying partnerships and negotiating new trade agreements. The result is a global trading system that is continuing to stretch across longer distances and connect markets worldwide.

All of which means that the outlook for cross-border business remains positive. Global trade is not retreating – it is reconfiguring. Companies that understand where flows are strengthening and which markets are deepening ties will be well positioned to capture new growth. And that’s where the insights from the DHL Global Connectedness Report are invaluable.

Opportunities for U.S. Businesses in 2026 and Beyond 

These shifts also present growth opportunities for American exporters. As global trade flows diversify, demand is rising for U.S. goods in markets that are rapidly expanding their economic ties with the United States — particularly Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, and India. 

Mexico has now solidified its position as the U.S.’s largest trade partner, benefiting from nearshoring investments and USMCA-driven supply chain integration. Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, continues to increase imports of U.S. industrial and technology products as its manufacturing and energy sectors grow. Vietnam has become one of the world’s fastest-growing manufacturing hubs, driving demand for U.S. machinery, semiconductors, and agricultural goods as companies shift sourcing away from China. And India, with one of the fastest growing major economies, is deepening commercial ties with U.S. firms across technology, healthcare, and industrial goods.  

For U.S. companies, these markets represent some of the strongest near-term export opportunities as global trade reconfigures rather than retreats.

FAQ: What U.S. Businesses Need to Know About Trade, Tariffs, Nearshoring, and Supply Chains (Updated in 2026)

Have U.S. tariffs hurt global trade?

Global trade and connectedness remains stable. The DHL Global Connectedness Index does not indicate a shift from international to domestic activity across trade, capital, information, and people flows. Global connectedness reached a record high in 2022 and has not changed appreciably through 2025, despite the introduction of a new tariff regime by the Trump administration in the U.S.

How fast did goods trade grow in 2025?

Goods trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the volatile Covid-19 pandemic period. U.S. buyers rushed to import goods ahead of tariff hikes, China increased exports to non-U.S. destinations, and investment in AI infrastructure boosted trade in goods such as semiconductors and data transmission equipment.

Will global trade continue to grow in 2026?

Trade growth is forecast to continue over the 2026–29 period at the same average pace as during the past decade. U.S. tariff increases only modestly reduced forecast global trade growth. Other countries supported trade growth by not raising tariffs, and many negotiated new trade deals to secure access to alternative markets.

How have Trump’s tariffs and trade changes impacted U.S.-China trade?

U.S.–China ties continue to diminish. Since 2016, the share of U.S. trade, capital, information, and people flows with China has dropped 42%, while China’s share with the U.S. is down 37%. However, close allies of the U.S. and China (excluding Russia) show no similar pattern of decoupling from geopolitical rivals.

Have U.S. imports from China fallen in 2025 after Trump’s tariffs?

The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China has fallen from a peak of 22% in 2017 to 13% in 2024, before plummeting further to only 9% during the first three quarters of 2025.

Has the U.S. become less dependent on China because of U.S. tariffs?

Analysis considering Chinese inputs in goods imported from other countries does not show a clear declining trend in U.S. reliance on content from China.

Is global trade dividing into disconnected trade blocs?

The world remains far from split into disconnected geopolitical blocs. Only 4–6% of global goods trade, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A have shifted away from geopolitical rivals over the past decade. Trade flows shifted more toward neutral countries than to close allies, implying more ‘de-risking’ than ‘friendshoring’.

Will countries reduce their risk by trading only with allies?

Most international business already occurs among friendly countries, limiting the threat de-risking strategies pose to globalization. In 2025, only 12% of global goods trade, 5% of greenfield FDI, and 3% of cross-border M&A took place between U.S.-aligned and China-aligned blocs of close allies.

Will global trade changes and U.S. tariffs result in countries implementing nearshoring?

Goods trade and greenfield FDI crossed their longest average distances on record in 2025, while the shares of these flows occurring within major geographic regions fell to new lows. It remains to be seen whether nearshoring strategies will ultimately lead to more regionalized business patterns.

More Essential Global Trade Insights for U.S. Businesses 

U.S. businesses that find fast-growing global trade corridors, stay ahead of evolving compliance and tariff requirements, and rely on trusted, data-driven insights — such as those in the DHL Global Connectedness Report — will be better positioned to expand and grow. As global trade continues to reconfigure rather than retreat, these insights help American companies understand where demand is shifting, which emerging markets offer the strongest opportunities, and how to navigate an increasingly complex regulatory environment.

The report has the insights to help your business find new markets – DHL Express has the international logistics expertise to get you there.

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