Globalization in 2026: what the DHL Globalization Tracker means for Brazil

Quick summary

• Globalization reached 25.8% in 2025, the highest level ever measured by the DHL and NYU Stern index.
• World goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year since 2011, apart from the post-Covid rebound.
• The race to build artificial intelligence infrastructure drove 76% of goods trade growth in the first quarter of 2026.
• Trade is forecast to grow 3.4% a year on average through 2029, above the 2.7% of the previous decade.
• Among the 50 largest trading nations, Brazil saw the biggest increase in the average distance of its trade in 2026: 330 km more.

Globalization is not in retreat: it hit a record in 2025 and world trade sped up in 2026, despite high U.S. tariffs and the Iran war. That is the picture in the October 2026 DHL Globalization Tracker, produced by NYU Stern School of Business from more than 30 million data points on trade, capital, information and people.

If you follow the news, it feels like the opposite. Tariff hikes, trade wars, closed routes, talk of deglobalization. The numbers tell a different story, and it matters to anyone selling or buying outside Brazil: the world market is still open, still growing and changing address.

What is the DHL Globalization Tracker?

The DHL Globalization Tracker is a twice-yearly report that measures how much of the world economy crosses borders. It is commissioned by DHL and written by Professor Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of NYU Stern School of Business in New York.

Until this edition, the study was called the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker. The name changed but the method did not, so the historical series is still comparable. The October 2026 edition uses data updated through September and covers goods trade up to mid-2026.

The report tracks four types of international flow:

• trade in goods and services;
• capital, such as foreign direct investment and mergers and acquisitions;
• information, such as internet traffic and international calls;
• people, such as tourism, students and migration.

The full version has interactive charts by country and region on the DHL Globalization Tracker website.

Is globalization declining?

No. The depth of globalization reached 25.8% in 2025, a record for the series. The index compares international with domestic activity on a scale from 0% (nothing crosses borders) to 100% (borders and distance no longer matter).

All four types of flow became more international during the year. Information remains the most globalized flow, followed by capital and trade. People remain the least globalized.

The number also shows how much room is left. With about a quarter of activity crossing borders, the world is closer to a set of national economies than to a single market. For a Brazilian business, that means most potential customers abroad have not yet been reached by anyone from outside their own country.

How much did world trade grow in 2026?

World goods trade grew in the first half of 2026 at the fastest pace since 2011, excluding the exceptional rebound after Covid. And it was already strong: in 2025, growth was the highest since 2017.

The main engine was artificial intelligence. According to WTO and OECD analysis cited in the report, AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and data transmission equipment accounted for 42% of goods trade growth in 2025 and about 76% in the first quarter of 2026. The value of trade in these goods rose 22% in 2025 and 42% in the first quarter of 2026.

Forecasts have improved too. The average of four sources (IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics and S&P Global) points to growth of 3.4% a year between 2026 and 2029:

Source: DHL Globalization Tracker, October 2026, based on the DHL Trade Atlas composite forecast.

That strength has a weak spot, and the authors acknowledge it: with so much growth concentrated in AI products, a slowdown in that sector would weigh heavily on total trade.

Why did tariffs and wars not stop trade?

Because the impact was strong but concentrated. U.S. tariffs reached their highest level in decades, but the U.S. accounted for 13% of world imports in 2025, and about half of its imports were exempt from the increases as of August 2026. Most countries also avoided retaliation and looked for alternative markets through new agreements instead.

The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hit economies that depend on that route hard. In the first five months of 2026, trade value fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates. Elsewhere, the impact was limited.

Another figure helps explain the picture: 72% of world goods trade still takes place on WTO most-favored-nation terms, down from 80% in 2022. About 16% goes through preferential agreements and 11% has been affected by recent tariffs.

If your business exports to the United States, keep a close eye on U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products, which keep changing.

Where is trade growing fastest?

In East Asia and the Pacific. The region's trade value rose 24% from January to May 2026 compared with the same period of 2025. Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa came next.

Source: DHL Globalization Tracker, October 2026, with IMF data.

Among the 50 largest trading nations, the biggest jumps were in Uzbekistan (122%), Malaysia (51%) and Taiwan (44%), the last two driven by demand for AI electronics.

Looking ahead, the fastest growth through 2029 is forecast for the Middle East and North Africa, followed by South and Central Asia and East Asia and the Pacific. For the Middle East, the projection depends on the end of the conflict and is the most uncertain.

Asia has also become more inward-looking: the share of its trade that stays within the region rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in early 2026.

Have the United States and China split the world into blocs?

Not so far. Direct trade between the two peaked at 3.5% of world trade in 2015 and fell to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. In business investment, the share is below 1%. Despite the sharp separation between the two, close U.S. allies have kept almost the same ties with China since 2016.

The report adds a caveat: direct trade understates U.S. reliance on China. Goods the U.S. buys from other countries increasingly contain Chinese inputs. Counting this indirect route, reliance fell only slightly through 2024, the latest year with data.

For businesses exporting from Brazil, the practical reading is that supply chains are reorganizing through indirect routes, not walls. That opens room for suppliers in third countries, Brazilian ones included.

What does the DHL Globalization Tracker show about Brazil?

Brazil appears in one specific data point: among the world's 50 largest trading nations, it was the country where the average distance of goods trade increased the most in the first five months of 2026, 330 km more than in 2025. At the other end, Australia's fell by 330 km. Put simply, Brazilian trade started to involve more distant partners.

The study does not give the cause. What can be said is that the figure matches the moment in Brazilian foreign trade, which is also growing. According to Secex, the foreign trade secretariat of Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC):

Source: Secex/MDIC, 2025 results (January 2026) and October 2026 results (released on November 6, 2026). Changes compared with the same period of 2025.

There is also a rule change that reinforces the trend the Tracker describes, with countries seeking alternative markets through agreements. The Interim Trade Agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, signed in Asunción on January 17, 2026, was enacted in Brazil by Decree No. 12,953 of April 28, 2026, and has applied provisionally since May 1, 2026. To benefit from lower tariffs, products must prove their origin: the guide to trade agreements and certificates of origin explains how.

How can you use this data in your export strategy?

The report's own advice to businesses is to prepare for shocks without giving up on international markets. A company that pulls back while its competitors stay abroad risks losing ground. In practice, that means five moves:

1. Measure your concentration. If more than half of your foreign sales depend on one country, plan a second and a third destination.
2. Look at where trade is growing. Asia leads the expansion, and the guide to shipping from Brazil to Asia covers documents and transit times for each destination.
3. Use the agreements in force. With the EU agreement now applied, review how your products are classified and check the rules of the EU customs reform.
4. Calculate the total cost before quoting a price. MyGTS estimates destination duties and taxes from the product code.
5. Test before changing your supply chain. Switching suppliers or production out of fear of shocks has a cost. Weigh the resilience gain against what you lose in reach and price.

To choose markets in more detail, the DHL Trade Atlas, by the same authors, has growth forecasts by country. And if exporting is still a plan, the guide to exporting from Brazil covers the first steps.

Frequently asked questions about the DHL Globalization Tracker

Sources

• DHL and NYU Stern School of Business: DHL Globalization Tracker, October 2026 (PDF)
• DHL: Tech Beats Tariffs: Global Trade Growth Accelerates and Globalization Sets New Record, October 7, 2026
• Agência Gov (Brazilian government): Brazilian exports reach US$ 349 billion in 2025, a record (in Portuguese), January 2026
• Agência Gov (Brazilian government): Brazil's total trade hits a record in October at US$ 66.3 billion (in Portuguese), November 2026
• Brazilian Federal Senate: Decree No. 12,953 of April 28, 2026 (in Portuguese)

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