Globalization has reached a new record despite higher tariffs, geopolitical conflicts and continued uncertainty. This is one of the key findings of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, commissioned by DHL and authored by researchers from New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Based on more than 30 million data points, the Tracker analyzes international flows of trade, capital, information and people, providing an extensive, a data-driven view of globalization and global trade trends.
For U.S. businesses, the latest findings also provide a closer look at a trade environment being reshaped by tariffs, AI investment and significant changes in where U.S. imports originate. While global trade patterns have shifted relatively modestly, U.S. import patterns are changing much more dramatically.
Global trade is growing even as U.S. import patterns shift
The global race to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence is giving world trade strong momentum at a time of higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts. Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, rising to 76% during the first quarter of 2026.
The AI boom has also played an important role in U.S. trade. The large-scale AI buildout in the U.S. has fueled import growth, even as imports of other goods have declined. This contributed to North America recording the largest upgrade to its trade-growth forecast since January 2026, reversing much of the sharp downgrade that followed U.S. tariff increases in 2025.
At the same time, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes, although their overall effects on global trade remained concentrated. U.S. tariffs on global trade also reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. The U.S. accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, and roughly half of U.S. imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Most countries also refrained from broad retaliation, with many instead seeking access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.
For U.S. businesses navigating higher tariffs, the broader global picture is therefore more resilient than the policy environment alone might suggest. Despite the recent shocks to international trade, forecasts have improved rather than deteriorated.
The global trade outlook has improved. Global goods trade is projected to grow by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, compared with 2.7% annual growth over the previous decade. East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth, with the value of its trade rising 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% growth and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.
However, that growth is not occurring evenly across markets. The U.S. stands out for the scale of the changes taking place in its import relationships. U.S. imports shifted across source countries in 2025 more than twice as much as in an average year and more than in any other year analyzed by the Tracker. Globally, by comparison, trade patterns changed only slightly more than in an average year.
Beyond trade, the DHL Globalization Tracker measures the broader development of globalization through international flows of trade, capital, information and people. In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%, with all four categories reaching higher levels of internationalization. And while U.S.–China ties have weakened significantly, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China – challenging the idea that the global economy is splitting into separate rival blocs.
What changing U.S.–China trade means for global supply chains
One of the biggest shifts for U.S. businesses is the changing trade relationship between the United States and China. China’s share of U.S. imports peaked at 22% in 2017, before falling to 14% in 2024, 9% in 2025 and 7% during the first five months of 2026.
But the decline in direct imports does not tell the whole story. U.S. imports from other countries contain growing amounts of materials and components made in China. The share of Chinese value added embedded in U.S. imports had fallen only slightly through 2024, the latest year available for that measure. The Tracker concludes that a substantial share of U.S.–China trade interdependence has therefore been redirected through third countries rather than truly reduced.
That distinction makes the underlying structure of supply chains important when evaluating changes in U.S. sourcing. A shift in the country directly supplying a product does not necessarily mean that the product's underlying international connections have shifted to the same degree.
And while U.S.–China ties have weakened significantly, the Tracker does not find evidence of a comparable split across the wider global economy. U.S. close allies have largely maintained their relationships with China, challenging the idea that international business is dividing broadly into separate U.S.- and China-aligned blocs.
North American trade is becoming more global, not more regional
Another important finding for U.S. businesses comes from the geography of trade. While the latest data show some signs of increased regionalization globally, the shift was driven primarily by East Asia and the Pacific. North America moved in the opposite direction.
During the first five months of 2026, North America's average trade distance increased by 140 kilometers while its intra-regional trade share remained stable. Trade between the U.S. and Canada declined, while U.S. trade increased with more distant partners such as Taiwan (China), Vietnam and South Korea. Looking specifically at the U.S., average trade distance increased by 114 kilometers.
These findings show that changing U.S. sourcing patterns are not simply translating into more regional trade. While East Asia moved toward shorter-distance trade, the U.S. moved substantially in the opposite direction during the period studied.
8 key takeaways from the DHL Globalization Tracker
| 1 | Globalization reached a new record. In 2025, international flows of trade, capital, information and people grew faster than domestic activity, lifting globalization to a record 25.8%. |
| 2 | Goods trade growth accelerated despite major shocks. Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional COVID rebound. |
| 3 | The global trade outlook has improved. Global goods trade is projected to grow by an average of 3.4% annually through 2029, compared with 2.7% annual growth over the previous decade. |
| 4 | AI investment is supporting U.S. import growth. Demand for semiconductors, data-transmission equipment and other AI-enabling goods is helping drive global trade growth and fueling U.S. import demand. |
| 5 | U.S. sourcing patterns are changing faster than global trade patterns. U.S. imports shifted across source countries in 2025 more than twice as much as in an average year and more than in any other year analyzed by the Tracker. |
| 6 | The U.S.–China trade relationship is being redirected as well as reduced. Trade between the U.S. and China fell from 3.5% of world trade in 2015 to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. |
| 7 | U.S. allies have not broadly followed the U.S.–China decoupling trend. This challenges the idea that the broader global economy is separating into rival U.S.- and China-aligned blocs. |
| 8 | U.S. trade is reaching more distant markets. North America's average trade distance increased by 140 kilometers during the first five months of 2026 as trade expanded with markets such as Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea. |
Get expert global trade guidance from DHL
The DHL Globalization Tracker can help businesses better understand global trade developments and explore trends by region and country. DHL Express can support businesses looking to turn international opportunities into growth.
Open a DHL Express Business Account for fast international shipping to more than 220 countries and territories, with support from our global experts.
Share
Similar Stories
