DHL Mid-Year 2026 Pulse: How U.S. SMEs Are Navigating Growth, Tariffs, and AI

How are SMEs really doing?

More than one-third of respondents reported outperforming their 2026 business plans: 14% say they are “far exceeding expectations,” and another 24% are “slightly exceeding” them. An additional 36% indicate they are meeting forecasts, while 21% are running slightly behind and just 5% describe results as “significantly below expectations.” Strong customer demand is the top business performance driver, cited by 39% of respondents.

Furthermore, optimism is high for the rest of the year: 85% of respondents expressed confidence in meeting their business goals for the remainder of 2026, with 31% saying they are very confident.

These figures suggest that, despite external headwinds, most SMEs have proven more adaptable than they anticipated when setting 2026 plans and goals. For most, it seems the forecasting process has become more disciplined after several volatile years.

How policy shifts are affecting international expansion

Tariffs and shifting trade policies remain the single greatest deterrent to going global: 35% cite import duties and regulations as their top hurdle, eclipsing logistics challenges (18%), finding reliable local partners or suppliers (13%), market competition (10%), and geopolitical issues (10%).

Reflecting that challenge, 53% of respondents say they have delayed or reconsidered expansion plans this year, and 42% said they will not pursue new foreign markets in the second half of 2026.

Even so, appetite for overseas opportunity endures. Among the SMEs still eyeing overseas growth, Europe (22%) and Canada (20%) are the most popular targets, followed by Asia (16%), South/Central America (13%), Middle East/Africa (12%), Australia/New Zealand (11%), and Mexico (10%).

How tariffs are reshaping operations

Rising expenses are dominating business planning. Nearly eight in ten SMEs (78%) say tariffs and trade restrictions have driven up their costs, and almost half of those firms (45%) report an increase in business costs by 10% or more this year. As a result, two-thirds (66%) have already raised prices in 2026—16% significantly and 50% slightly—while another 4% expect to follow suit before year-end. Unsurprisingly, the top priority for growth in 2026 is reducing operational costs, chosen by 35% of respondents. It’s clear that for the rest of the year, SMEs will be increasingly looking to uncover operational efficiencies and smarter supply chain decisions to protect margins.

AI Adoption: Untapped potential?

Technology could also help with growth and reducing costs, yet only 7% selected AI or automation as their top investment priority. And 43% are not using AI at all. The good news for the workforce is that those SMEs that are using AI are using it to enhance (not replace) people; just 2% deploy the technology with the explicit goal of reducing headcount.

The findings suggest many SMEs still view AI as either too complex or too resource-intensive to implement, despite its potential business benefits. That creates a significant opportunity for practical, easy-to-adopt solutions, particularly logistics-focused digital tools that streamline trade compliance, sharpen demand forecasting, and accelerate shipping decisions.

Sustainability: A secondary consideration

Environmental responsibility has seemed to take another backseat in 2026. Only 27% say reducing their carbon footprint is “very important,” while 41% label it “somewhat important” and 32% deem it “not important.”

The findings reveal a sizable segment that values sustainability in principle but has yet to take advantage of available solutions, such as DHL’s GoGreen Plus, which leverages Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to help reduce emissions associated with air transport. This highlights an opportunity for turnkey shipping solutions that embed measurable carbon reduction into supply chains without disrupting day-to-day operations.

What the rest of 2026 holds for U.S. SMEs

The 2026 landscape for U.S. SMEs is defined by cautious optimism and pragmatic investment. Businesses are leaning on disciplined cost control, selective international moves, and incremental technology adoption to navigate economic complexity. DHL Express remains committed to supporting these objectives through trade-compliance expertise, AI-enabled shipping tools, and accessible sustainability programs that help SMEs thrive amid continued uncertainty.

Want the full survey results?

Discover how more than 400 U.S. SME decision-makers are navigating tariffs, AI adoption, and global growth in 2026—along with key insights to help guide your strategy. 

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